In order to assess the impacts of the emission-reduction targets, a projection of emissions and output that would have occurred in the absence of the regulations is required. This is referred to as a "business-as-usual" (BAU) projection. This annex provides an overview of the BAU projection used in developing and assessing the proposed targets for greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions.
The BAU projection is based on Canada's Energy Outlook: The Reference Case 2006 (CEO 2006).15 CEO 2006 provides "business-as-usual" production and greenhouse gas emission projections for Canada as a whole and for various sectors of the economy. The production projections were used as the basis for the assessment of both greenhouse gas and air pollutant targets. Because the CEO 2006 projection is not sufficiently disaggregated by industrial sector, especially for the mining and manufacturing sectors, additional sources of information were needed for the greenhouse gas emission projections. CEO 2006 does not include air pollutant emissions, so a separate but consistent BAU projection of air pollutant emissions was developed.
The CEO 2006 projections of both emissions and production were used as a basis for the assessment of the greenhouse gas emission-intensity targets for electricity and most oil and gas sectors, with some minor modifications due to differences in coverage. For the majority of the remaining sectors, the CEO 2006 emission projections were combined with production growth and emission-intensity improvement estimates from Environment Canada in developing and assessing the targets.
The emissions projections used to develop and assess the 2015 targets for air pollutants are based on the Canadian Criteria Air Contaminants (CAC) Emissions Outlook,16 adjusted in most cases to reflect the projected production numbers from CEO 2006 or other factors described below. The CAC Emissions Outlook provided "business-as-usual" projections for each of the ten provinces and three territories (though the Northwest Territories and Nunavut are treated as one region) for all industrial and non-industrial sources of emissions. It includes sector-specific adjustments based on input from interested stakeholders, industry and industry associations, and government (federal, provincial, and territorial).
The projections in the CAC Emissions Outlook were adjusted in most cases to incorporate information provided by Environment Canada. These adjustments were made:
15 Canada's Energy Outlook: The Reference Case 2006, available at www.nrcan-rncan.gc.ca/com/resoress/publications/peo/peo-eng.php.
16 Canadian Criteria Air Contaminants (CAC) Emissions Outlook, available at www.ec.gc.ca/pdb/cac/Emissions1990-2015/emissions_e.cfm.