Chances of a white Christmas

Will your Christmas be white and snowy?

Chance of white christmas

Check the Environment and Climate Change Canada weather forecast. Since the weather forecast covers the next seven days, you can get the forecast for Christmas Day starting on December 19.

For those who can't wait, Environment and Climate Change Canada has analyzed 61 years of weather records for 45 major centres across Canada, and calculated the probability of having a white snow-covered Christmas Day.

The following table charts the amount of snowfall recorded for major cities across Canada from 1955-2015. From this, a probability can be made to determine if a white Christmas will occur for the current year.

Amount of snowfall recorded (in centimetres) for major cities across Canada from 1955 - 2015
City	% Chance 1955-2015	% Chance now 1994-2015	% Chance before 1965-1984	Change in frequency over 30 yr (%)	Perfect Christmas 1955-2007	Snow depth now 1994-2015	Snow depth past 1965-1984	Change in snow depth over 30 yr (cm)
Brandon	93	90	95	5	28	18	12	-6
Barrie*	72	60	n/a	n/a	n/a	16	n/a	n/a
Buttonville**	53	50	n/a	n/a	n/a	5	n/a	n/a
Calgary	57	55	70	15	4	5	5	1
Charlottetown	77	50	90	40	48	8	15	7
Edmonton	87	80	100	20	20	12	17	5
Fredericton	75	45	85	40	30	7	22	16
Goose Bay	98	95	100	5	53	37	64	28
Grand Prairie	85	80	100	20	26	17	23	7
Halifax	56	40	65	25	24	2	9	7
Hamilton	61	55	65	10	26	6	5	0
Iqaluit	100	100	100	0	51	18	20	1
Kamloops	51	50	55	5	25	5	11	5
Kelowna	62	50	75	25	26	4	8	4
Kenora	100	100	100	0	43	22	31	9
Kitchener-Waterloo	67	55	73	18	45	6	9	3
Lethbridge	49	45	55	10	6	6	5	-1
London	67	50	80	30	33	7	9	2
Medicine Hat	56	50	75	25	17	5	6	2
Moncton	72	60	80	20	40	10	21	11
Montreal	75	65	85	20	25	8	17	9
Ottawa	80	70	85	15	35	17	18	2
Prince George	92	90	100	10	40	15	20	5
Penticton	30	25	35	10	11	3	4	2
Quebec	97	90	100	10	60	23	45	22
Regina	92	90	95	5	38	14	14	0
Saint John	59	40	70	30	36	4	12	8
Sarnia	59	35	85	50	19	4	7	3
Saskatoon	95	85	100	15	22	10	12	2
St. John's	64	60	50	-10	24	8	9	1
Sault Ste Marie***	89	80	95	15	69	16	24	8
Stephenville	80	65	90	25	64	15	22	7
Sudbury	93	90	100	10	46	19	21	3
Sydney	59	40	65	25	46	5	9	5
Thunder Bay	97	90	100	10	38	12	23	11
Timmins	98	95	100	5	46	29	48	18
Toronto City	44	35	50	15	9	4	4	0
Toronto (GTA)	51	35	65	30	13	4	5	2
Vancouver	10	15	5	-10	4	4	1	-3
Victoria	10	15	5	-10	6	3	0	-2
Whitehorse	100	100	100	0	27	19	28	9
Wiarton	80	70	90	20	54	13	18	5
Windsor	44	45	50	5	4	4	3	-1
Winnipeg	98	95	100	5	11	15	12	-3
Yellowknife	100	100	100	0	27	26	24	-2

* Data has a shorter period: 1980-2015
** Data has a shorter period: 1986-2015
*** Data has a shorter period: 1961-2015

Definitions

% Chance: probability of a white Christmas (snow on the ground of 2 cm or more on Christmas morning at 7 a.m. EST) for full period of 61 years
% Chance now: for children today based on period 1996-2015
% Chance before: for parents today when they were children based on period 1965-1984
Perfect Christmas: snow on the ground of 2 cm or more on Christmas morning and snow in the air sometime Christmas day, i.e., a measurable snowfall on Christmas based on period 1955-2007
Snow depth now: average depth of snow on the ground (cm) on Christmas morning from 1994 to 2015
Snow depth past: average depth of snow on the ground (cm) on Christmas morning from 1965 to 1984

Date modified:: 2016-12-14