It is well established that seasonal climate forecasts based on a combination of models, or multi-model ensemble, tend to outperform forecasts based on a single model. The National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is a U.S. initiative, currently funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), to develop an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system using coupled-model based predictions from multiple forecasting and modelling centres. Recently the NMME gained two Environment Canada models that were developed at the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis and form the basis for Environment Canada’s current seasonal forecasting system, CanSIPS. The NMME website currently furnishes predictions of future monthly and seasonal near surface and sea surface temperatures, precipitation rate, and El Niño/La Niña activity from the individual and combined models, as well as corresponding indications of forecast skill.

NMME forecast of North America temperature anomalies for December to February 2012-13, issued in November 2012. | © Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.)

Contacts: Bill Merryfield, (250) 363-8263, Bill.Merryfield@ec.gc.ca, Climate Research Division; and Bertrand Denis, (514) 421-7264, Bertrand.Denis@ec.gc.ca, Meteorological Service of Canada