--- Environment Canada signature Canada Wordmark
Skip first menu
  Français Contact Us Help Search Canada Site
What's New
About Us
Topics Publications Weather Home
Greenhouse Gas EmissionsCriteria Air ContaminantsNPRI
---
Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks

February 9, 2010



Home > GHG Inventory > Archive

NATIONAL INVENTORY REPORT: GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCES AND SINKS IN CANADA, 1990-2006

| TOC | Previous | Next |

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

ES.1 Greenhouse Gas Inventories and Climate Change

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)–Article 4(1)(a), Article 12(1)(a), and Decision 3 / CP.5–requires Annex I Parties to submit an annual greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory report using the UNFCCC’s guidelines. The year 2008 marks the production of Canada’s 14th National Inventory Report (NIR). It is also the fourth inventory since the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC, which Canada ratified in 2002, came into force. Underpinning the UNFCCC is the national GHG inventory, composed of the National Inventory Report and Common Reporting Format tables. It is the key tool for monitoring and reporting on emissions from sources and removals by sinks and, with respect to the Kyoto Protocol, is the ultimate measure for assessing compliance with the national emissions target. Canada considers the GHG National Inventory Program a priority, and Environment Canada is committed to ensuring adequate funding.

Guidelines under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol have a number of implications for reporting and review requirements. Annex I countries are expected to estimate GHG emissions by sources and removals by sinks using agreed-upon methodologies, as outlined in the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC/OECD/IEA 1997), Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC 2000), and Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (IPCC 2003). As a result, the UNFCCC requires that countries identify, quantify, and reduce uncertainty of estimates as much as practicable. This results in a process of continuous evaluation and improvement of methods, models, and documentation to ensure that internationally agreed upon standards are met. These activities are designed to ensure that all sources and sinks, and therefore all emission reductions and enhancements of removals, are properly accounted for.

The national inventory system includes all institutional, legal, and procedural arrangements made within a Party for estimating emissions and removals of GHGs according to the above methodologies, as well as for reporting and archiving the inventory information. Canada’s initial report, as required under the Kyoto Protocol, was submitted to the UNFCCC last year. It included, among other things, a description of the national system and a calculation of Canada’s assigned amount (emission target) under Article 7.4. The initial report, along with the inventory submitted in 2006, was subjected to a full review by a UNFCCC expert review team in the fall of 2007.

As a result of this review, which identified areas for improvement in the inventory, Canada has made a number of refinements in its methodologies and incorporated them in a resubmission of its 2006 estimates on January 23, 2008. All of these methodological refinements are reported on in this document. In addition, as these improvements affect the estimates originally submitted in the 2007 National Inventory Report, that inventory is now superseded by this report, which acts as both Canada’s 2007 resubmission and its 2008 submission.

This report therefore incorporates two years of improvements in the estimation methodologies, including:

  • in the Energy Sector - results of a detailed study on fugitive emissions from the non-conventional oil extraction industry, new data on vehicles and new emission factors for transport-related CH4 and N2O have been incorporated;

  • in the Waste Sector - revised estimation methods;

  • in the Agricultural Sector - improvements to estimates, including the incorporation of new census data;

  • in the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) Sector - better estimates, based upon new activity data and estimation parameters.

In developing the estimates, quality assurance / quality control procedures continue to be used to formally ensure and document the quality of the estimates.

The current report includes an inventory of anthropogenic (human-induced) emissions by sources, and removals by sinks, of the six main GHGs not controlled by the Montreal Protocol. This executive summary highlights some of the latest developments in the inventory, discusses underlying trends in the emissions, provides some international context, and presents national and provincial/territorial emissions for 1990-2006. Chapter 1, Introduction, provides an overview of climate and GHG concentration trends, as well as Canada’s legal, institutional, and procedural arrangements for producing the inventory (i.e. the national inventory system), a brief description of estimation methodologies and quality assurance / quality control procedures, a description of Canada’s facility emission reporting system and assessments of completeness and uncertainty. Chapter 2 provides an in-depth analysis of Canada’s GHG emission trends in accordance with the UNFCCC reporting guidelines. Chapters 3-8 provide descriptions and additional analysis for each broad emission and removal category according to UNFCCC Common Reporting Format requirements. Chapter 9 presents a summary of recalculations and planned improvements. This year that summary is an expanded one, as it reports on recalculations incorporated since the 2006 inventory submission. Annexes 1 to 7 provide a key category analysis, detailed explanations of estimation methodologies, a comparison of the sectoral and reference approaches, a more complete description of quality assurance / quality control procedures, completeness assessments, and a discussion of inventory uncertainty. Summary tables of GHG emissions tabulated by jurisdiction, sector, and gas are presented in Annexes 8 and 11. Annexes 9 and 10 present additional details on the GHG intensity of electricity generation and trend analyses by province/territory, respectively. Emission factors are provided in Annex 12, and a description of rounding procedures is found in Annex 13. Finally, brief summary tables of emissions of ozone and aerosol precursors are provided in Annex 14.

Back to top

ES.1.1 Developing Canada’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory

On behalf of the Government of Canada, Environment Canada develops and publishes Canada’s GHG inventory annually. The GHGs for which emissions and removals have been estimated in the national inventory are:

  • carbon dioxide (CO2);

  • methane (CH4);

  • nitrous oxide (N2O);

  • sulphur hexafluoride (SF6);

  • perfluorocarbons (PFCs); and

  • hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs).

The inventory reporting format is based on international reporting methods agreed to by the Parties to the UNFCCC, using the procedures of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC/OECD/IEA/ 1997; IPCC 2000; IPCC 2003). The inventory uses an internationally agreed upon reporting format that groups emissions into the following six sectors: Energy; Industrial Processes; Solvent and Other Product Use; Agriculture; Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF); and Waste. Each of these sectors is further subdivided within the inventory and follows, as closely as possible, the UNFCCC subsector divisions.1 Detailed descriptions of the methodologies used to estimate the sector emissions and removals and their respective trends are provided in chapters 3 through 8 and Annexes 2 and 3. In keeping with UNFCCC reporting requirements for Annex I Parties, this report also contains information on the ozone precursors nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), as well as on sulphur dioxide (SO2).

Back to top

ES.2 Summary of National Trends in Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals

In 2006, Canadians contributed about 721 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent2 (Mt CO2 eq)3 of GHGs to the atmosphere (Figure S-1), a 1.9% reduction from 2005. This followed a year of relatively very low growth in emissions and another year of decline, such that the overall change from 2003 is a reduction of 2.8%. Canada’s economic GHG intensity–the amount of GHGs emitted per unit of economic activity–was 5% lower in 2006 than in 2005. Since 1990, emissions have increased by about 22%.

Figure S-1: Canadian GHG Emission Trend and Kyoto Target

Figure S-1: Canadian GHG Emission Trend and Kyoto Target

Click to enlarge

Table S-1 depicts Canada’s total GHG emissions from 1990 to 2006, along with several primary indicators: gross domestic product (GDP), population, energy use, energy production, and energy export. From the table, it is evident that the 21.7% increase in GHG emissions during the 16-year period outpaced increases in population (which totalled 17.9%) and was almost identical to the increase in energy use (which was 21.5%). However, the growth in total emissions was well short of the 54% growth in GDP between 1990 and 2006.

Table S-1: Canada’s GHG Emissions and Accompanying Variables, 1990-2006

Click here to view Table S-1

The result is that economic GHG intensity has decreased by a total of 21% over the period, an average of 1.3% per year. More goods were manufactured, more commercial activity occurred, and more travel took place per unit of GHG emissions. These trends are summarized graphically in Figure S-2. The indexed curves clearly show that GHG emissions per energy used remained static over the period, while economic GHG intensity decreased.

Figure S-2: Trends in Energy, Population and GHG Emissions Indicators, 1990-2006

Figure S-2: Trends in Energy, Population and GHG Emissions Indicators, 1990-2006

Click to enlarge

Another trend worth noting is the much larger growth in energy production compared with energy use between 1990 and 2005. This is a consequence of Canada’s large fossil fuel resources and an economy geared to take advantage of them, with increasing quantities of energy being delivered to the international market. The resultant sharp growth in energy exports over the period has had a significant impact on the emission trend. (See Section ES.4.1 for more details.)

Changes from the Previous National Inventory Report

As a result of review and improvements to the inventory, estimates for the 1990-2005 period have been revised. Each year GHG inventories as submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) secretariat are reviewed by a team of experts drawn from a UNFCCC roster of experts. Moreover, for purposes of the Kyoto Protocol, each Annex 1 Party that is also a party to the Kyoto Protocol was required to submit an initial report. Canada’s initial report under the Kyoto Protocol was filed on March 15, 2007, and underwent an in-country review by a United Nations Expert Review Team (ERT) in November 2007. The initial report is an essential pre-commitment period reporting obligation that Canada and other Kyoto Protocol signatories with targets must meet in order to establish their initial assigned amount (emissions budget over the 2008-2012 period) and to be eligible to utilize the Kyoto mechanisms of trading and joint implementation projects. The initial report and accompanying material, specifically the annual National Inventory Report (NIR) and Common Reporting Format (CRF) tables, must demonstrate our capacity to manage and maintain our national system for the ongoing development and reporting of GHG emissions and removals, and our capacity to maintain the national registry to account for tradable emissions units, according to the relevant decisions of the Conference of the Parties (CoP) to the UNFCCC and the Meeting of the Parties (MOP) to the Kyoto Protocol. As part of this process, each country’s assigned amount, or Kyoto target, referenced to the 1990 base year, was reviewed.

The ERT recommended that Canada revise some of the emission estimates contained in the inventory submitted as part of the initial report (the submission made in 2006), re-submit certain estimates for the 1990-2004 period, and submit other as new estimates for the 1990-2005 period. The revisions have resulted in a recalculation of the base year (1990) emissions (from 599 Mt CO2 eq to 594 Mt CO2 eq for the 2006 year submission) and therefore a recalculation of the assigned amount, now finalized as 2 791 792 771 tonnes CO2 eq. This final revision to the assigned amount represents a 0.8% reduction from the value calculated in the initial report submitted in March 2007.

Specific areas requiring revision, as identified by the ERT, included categories in the Energy, Waste, Agriculture, and Industrial Process sectors. These revisions, including improved methodologies and country-specific emission factors, meant that recalculations of values were necessary throughout the time series, including those for the 1990 base year (see Annex 9).

While Canada’s 1990 estimate has been set at 594 Mt CO2 eq as the basis for calculating its assigned amount under the Kyoto Protocol, additional improvements to methods and data can and will result in changes to all years in the time series from 1990 onwards. Updates to Statistics Canada’s preliminary energy data reported in 2007 have affected the 2005 estimates. As a result, total GHG emissions previously reported (in May 2007) have in this year’s inventory been revised downward from 596 to 592 Mt for 1990 while those for 2005 have been revised downward from 747 Mt to 735 Mt (both figures without the Land- Use, Land Use Change and Forestry Sector). The overall impact of these changes is that emission growth over the 1990-2005 period, previously reported to be 25.3%, is now estimated to be 24.0%.

Back to top

ES.3 Emission and Removal Estimates and Trends

ES.3.1 2006 Emissions and Removals

Table S-2 details Canada’s emissions and removals for 2006. On an individual GHG basis, CO2 contributed 78% of the total emissions, while CH4 accounted for 14%. N2O accounted for 7% of the emissions, while PFCs, SF6, and HFCs constituted the remainder (less than 2%).

Table S-2: Canada’s GHG Emissions by Gas and Sector, 2006

Click here to view Table S-2

Approximately 72% of total GHG emissions in 2006 resulted from the combustion of fossil fuels. Another 9% were from fugitive sources, with the result that about 81% of emissions were from the Energy Sector. A sectoral breakdown of Canada’s total emissions for 2006 is shown in Figure S-3.

Figure S-3: Sectoral Breakdown of Canada’s GHG Emissions, 2006

Figure S-3: Sectoral Breakdown of Canada’s GHG Emissions, 2006

As per reporting requirements, the Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry Sector estimates are not included in the national totals. This sector displays net overall emissions of 31 Mt for 2006. This would, if included, increase total Canadian GHG emissions by 4%.

Back to top

ES.3.2 Sector Trends

ES.3.2.1 Short-Term Changes

Table S-3 outlines Canada’s GHG emissions and removals, by sector, between 1990 and 2006. As indicated above, emissions in 2006 are estimated at about 721 Mt, which represents a 1.9% decrease from 2005 levels and a 2.8% decrease from 2003 levels. Overall, the long-term trend shows that emissions in 2006 were about 22% above the revised 1990 total of 592 Mt, indicating a difference between the long-term trend and more recent changes.

Table S-3: Canada’s GHG Emissions by Sector, 1990-2006

Click here to view Table S-3

Since 2003, GHG emission trends first showed a slowdown in growth and then decreased until 2006. This decrease was more than 20 Mt (2.8%). As can be seen from Table S-1, the emission change has been accompanied by declining domestic energy use. Though there were some significant increases in certain areas (notably Road Transportation and, to a smaller extent, Industrial Processes) these were more than offset by a large decline in emissions from Electricity and Heat Generation and a reduction in emissions from the Fossil Fuel Industries, both of which are reversals from the long-term trend. Residential and Commercial & Institutional GHGs fell significantly as well.

Between 2003 and 2006, greenhouse gas emissions from Electricity and Heat Generation fell by 18 Mt (13%). This drop occurred as a result of reduced coal and oil generation, which was replaced by increased electricity from hydro, nuclear, and, to some extent, wind power sources. Hydroelectric power generation increased throughout Canada as a result of higher water levels (precipitation in each of 2004, 2005, and 2006 was greater than the 30-year average). At the same time, efforts have been made in Ontario to decrease coal generation while bringing more nuclear plant back on line. Overall, coal power generation in Canada fell by 6% between 2003 and 2006, its lowest level since 1997.

The fossil fuel industries,4 consisting of oil, gas, and coal production; refining; and transmission showed a 4 Mt decrease between 2003 and 2006. During the period, the price of crude oil rose 75%.5 Though crude oil production increased by 6%, crude oil exports rose much more quickly (15%), while total domestic energy use fell by 1.3%. Emissions associated with Petroleum Refining and Upgrading alone fell by 3.2 Mt (17%). This was accompanied by a 2.5% reduction in the amount of crude oil refined in Canada, but fuel switching from coke to less carbon-intensive natural gas consumption at refineries appears to have made the largest impact on GHG reductions in this area.

On average, Canadian homes and businesses have required lower energy quantities for space heating each successive year since 2003, due to overall milder winter temperatures. In 2006, Heating Degree Days, an indicator of the necessity for space heating due to the severity of cold weather, were down almost 13% compared to 2003 on a national basis. This fact almost certainly had an impact on fossil fuel consumption, specifically in the residential and commercial & institutional sectors, where emissions declined by a total of 9.6 Mt (12%) since 2003.

Back to top
ES.3.2.2 Long-Term Trends

The long-term (1990-2006) sub-sector emission trends showed both declines and increases, but the increases were well ahead of the declines, for a net growth of 128 Mt, or 22%. The largest portion of the growth is observed in the Energy Sector, where the energy industries (fossil fuel industries plus Electricity and Heat Generation), Road Transportation, Commercial and Institutional, and Mining categories made the greatest contributions.

The activities of the energy industries’ fossil fuel industries include both combustion sources (Fossil Fuel Industries and Pipelines) and fugitive sources (Coal Mining and Oil and Natural Gas).6 The fossil fuel industries registered a net increase of about 43 Mt of GHG emissions from 1990 to 2006 (43% growth). These emissions are related to coal mining and the production, transmission, processing, refining, and distribution of all oil and gas products.

By 2006, total production of crude oil and natural gas showed a 66% increase over 1990 levels. Elevated demand, particularly in the United States, drove these trends, with the export market growing by far the most rapidly7 (see Section ES.4.1). Although increasing demand provides a portion of the explanation for the emission trend, it does not paint the complete picture.

Since well before 1990, easily removable reserves of conventional crude have been falling. Thus, energy consumption per unit of conventional oil produced has been increasing (Neitzert et al. 1999). In fact, between 1990 and 2000, the energy requirements per barrel of conventional light/medium oil extracted nearly doubled (Nyboer and Tu 2008). At the same time, highly energy- and GHG-intensive8 synthetic oil production (i.e. from oil sands) has become increasingly competitive with conventional oil extraction. These trends contribute significantly to the rapidly rising emission increases in the oil and gas industry over the 1990-2006 period.

Electricity and Heat Generation, representing the other portion of the energy industries, also saw large increases in emissions. Rising demand for electricity caused GHG emissions to grow by 22 Mt between 1990 and 2006. Comparatively, in 2006, total electricity demand was approximately 95 TWh (terawatt-hours) above the 1990 level.9 Although up until the last few years of the period an increasing percentage of high-emitting fossil fuel generation in the mix had worsened the average GHG intensity of electricity production, more recently this trend has reversed. The end result is that from 1990 to 2006, though generation rose 26%, GHG emissions increased 23%, or slightly less than the generation increase.

Of primary importance in this trend is that the GHG emissions associated with coal-fired electricity generation, which had been increasing since the mid-1990s, have begun to decrease since peaking between 2000 and 2002. As indicated in the shorter-term trends, this is due to the return to service of a number of nuclear units and a commitment to reduced coal-fired electricity generation in Ontario, as well as fuel switching to natural gas in a number of regions of the country. Although having some effect in the pre-2006 period, non-hydro renewable energy sources are predicted to have a more significant impact on emission reductions post-2006. The reason for this is that the installed capacity of wind power in Canada has begun to rise rapidly. Nevertheless, fuel and generation costs are likely to continue to play a major role in determining whether coal-fired generation and the associated GHG emissions will be reduced further in the future.

Emissions from Road Transportation rose by 35 Mt (35%) between 1990 and 2006. Of particular interest in this subsector is a 24 Mt (almost 120%) increase in emissions from Light-Duty Gasoline Trucks (LDGTs). This was partially offset by 7 and 1.4 Mt emission reductions from gasoline-fuelled cars (Light-Duty Gasoline Vehicles, or LDGVs) and alternatively fuelled cars (Propane and Natural Gas Vehicles).

The primary source of this net trend of rising emissions is the increase in the number of passenger-kilometres travelled (more people drove further) (NRCan 2005). However, it was the passenger-kilometres driven by light trucks that increased, while those driven by cars decreased. Contributing to this trend was the fact that the number of light trucks on the road doubled between 1990 and 2005, while the number of automobiles declined slightly. Since light trucks have higher emissions per kilometre than automobiles, the rising popularity of sport utility vehicles (SUVs) and pickups worsened the emission impact of increasing numbers of people driving further.

Research suggests10 that, between 1990 and 2004, about 10% of the emission increase from automobiles and light trucks could be attributed purely to the shift in the type of private vehicles being driven. Perhaps of greater interest is the overall trend towards increasing horsepower for all classes of passenger vehicles, which has negated the rather substantial efficiency improvements made in internal combustion engines.

Emissions from HDDVs (large freight trucks) rose by about 19 Mt between 1990 and 2006, a 91% increase. Spurred on by free trade and the deregulation of the trucking industry, the amount of freight shipped grew rapidly over the period. In addition, the quantity shipped by truck (as opposed to other modes of transport, such as rail) increased as a result of customer requirements for just-in-time delivery and cross-border freight (NRCan 2005).

The Commercial & Institutional category displayed an 8 Mt (30%) increase in GHG emissions between 1990 and 2006. Driving this trend was a 25.5% increase in the floor space of commercial and institutional buildings (e.g. offices, schools, stores, and government edifices) between 1990 and 2005, a result of Canada’s growing economy over the period. Energy demand in commercial buildings is also influenced by weather. In terms of Heating Degree Days, 2006 was about 3% warmer than 1990, so this helped to reduce emission growth; nevertheless, the impact of floor space dominates.

Mining showed a large increase in emissions between 1990 and 2006–10 Mt (about 167%), largely because of increasing economic activity.

Another sector that contributed, although to a lesser extent than Energy, to the longer-term growth in GHG emissions is Agriculture. This sector showed a 12 Mt increase (25%) between 1990 and 2006, resulting primarily from the expansion of the beef cattle, swine, and poultry industries, as well as an increase in the application of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer in the Prairies.

In addition to the already-mentioned reduction in emissions from automobiles, three subsectors, all within the Industrial Processes Sector, contributed towards counteracting 1990-2006 emission growth–Adipic Acid Production (Chemical Industry), Aluminum Production, and SF6 used in Magnesium Smelters and Casters (both constituents of Metal Production).

At Canada’s sole adipic acid production plant in Canada, the installation of an emission abatement system in 1997 resulted in significant reductions of N2O emissions. Although this system was temporarily off-line in 2004 (and therefore N2O reductions were not as great that year), emissions in 2006 were down 9.5 Mt (89%) in comparison to 1990.

In the aluminium industry (which emits both CO2 and PFCs), PFC emissions were reduced as a result of better control of anode events in smelters by increasing use of electronic monitoring and automated emission controls. As a result, between 1990 and 2006, total GHG process emissions from the aluminium industry decreased by 1.7 Mt (15%), while primary aluminium production increased significantly.

Although it does not contribute to national totals, it is of interest to consider the trends in the LULUCF Sector. The changes in emissions from sources and removals by sinks in the LULUCF sector suggests that the whole sector tended to turn from a sink to a source of CO2. In 2006, the net flux from this sector amounted to a net source of 31 Mt. Trends in the LULUCF sector are primarily driven by those in forest land. The net flux in forest land displays an important annual variability due to the erratic pattern of forest wildfires, which masks other, underlying patterns in the sector directly associated with human activities. For example, between 1990 and 1998 the amount of carbon removed in harvested wood biomass increased by 50%; it has since then stabilized around an annual average of 42 Mt C, corresponding to annual emissions of 155 Mt CO2. Nevertheless, the impact of major forest disturbances in recent years, notably the mountain pine beetle infestation in Western Canada and the large areas burned by wildfires in 1995, 1998, 2002, 2003 and 2004, dominates the sector.

Back to top

ES.4 Other Information

ES.4.1 Emissions Associated with the Export of Oil and Natural Gas

Canada is rich in fossil fuel resources, and the associated industry contributes significantly to the economy. A much greater quantity of Canada’s oil and gas production is sold internationally now than in the past. Between 1990 and 2006, oil exports grew by 171% to 3 955 petajoules (PJ)11 (almost three times the rate of growth of oil production) (Table S-4), while exports of natural gas increased 154% to 3 906 PJ (almost twice the rate of growth of natural gas production) (Table S-5).12 Furthermore, the sum total of oil and gas energy exports increased by 162% over the same period (Table S-6). It is important to note that natural gas exports have exhibited little change since 2000. Future increases in natural gas exports are unlikely given projected production declines from diminishing reserves in Canada’s largest natural gas reservoir (the Western Sedimentary Basin) (Nyboer and Tu 2006).

Table S-4: Crude Oil: Production, Export, and GHG Emission Trends, 1990-2006
Crude Oil Trends 1990 1995 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006
Domestic Production (PJ) 3 723 4 401 4 917 5 572 5 740 5 626 5 930
Growth Since 1990 (%) NA 18.2 32.1 49.7 54.2 51.1 59.3
Energy Imported (PJ) 1 199 1 318 2 041 2 026 2 088 2 070 1 897
Growth Since 1990 (%) NA 9.9 70.2 68.9 74.1 72.6 58.2
Energy Exported (PJ) 1 461 2 362 3 091 3 444 3 623 3 522 3 955
Growth Since 1990 (%) NA 62 111 136 148 141 171
Apparent Domestic Consumption (PJ) 3 461 3 357 3 867 4 154 4 205 4 174 3 872
Growth Since 1990 (%) NA -3.0 11.7 20.0 21.5 20.6 11.9
Emissions Associated with Gross Exports (Mt CO2 eq) 13.9 24.5 31.9 36.0 38.0 36.9 41.8
Growth Since 1990 (%) NA 76 130 159 174 165 201
Emissions Associated with Net Exports1 (Mt CO2 eq) 8.8 17.8 16.5 20.7 22.0 21.0 28.1
Growth Since 1990 (%) NA 102 87 135 150 139 219

Notes:

1. See box on Net Export Emissions.

NA = Not applicable.

Table S-5: Natural Gas: Production, Export, and GHG Emission Trends, 1990-2006
Natural Gas Trends 1990 1995 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006
Domestic Production (PJ) 4 184 61 29 7 062 7 065 7 096 7 192 7 220
Growth Since 1990 (%) NA 47 69 69 70 72 73
Energy Imported (PJ) 24.2 25.7 61.8 369.8 415.0 364.4 369.3
Growth Since 1990 (%) NA 6 155 1427 1613 1405 1425
Energy Exported (PJ) 1 537 3 011 3 846 3 876 4 022 4 066 3 906
Growth Since 1990 (%) NA 96 150 152 162 164 154
Apparent Domestic Consumption (PJ) 2 671 3 144 3 278 3 559 3 489 3 491 3 683
Growth Since 1990 (%) NA 18 23 33 31 31 38
Emissions Associated with Gross Exports (Mt CO2 eq) 13.9 26.5 33.1 33.4 34.6 34.9 33.6
Growth Since 1990 (%) NA 91 138 140 149 151 142
Emissions Associated with Net Exports1 (Mt CO2 eq) 12.7 25.1 31.1 25.6 25.9 27.2 25.8
Growth Since 1990 (%) NA 98 145 101 104 114 103

Notes:

1. See box on Net Export Emissions.

NA = Not applicable.

Table S-6: Combined Crude Oil and Natural Gas: Production, Export, and GHG Emission Trends, 1990-2006
Crude Oil & Natural Gas Trends 1990 1995 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006
Domestic Production (PJ) 7 906 10 530 11 979 12 638 12 835 12 819 13 149
Growth Since 1990 (%) NA 33 52 60 62 62 66
Energy Imported (PJ) 1 224 1 344 2 103 2 396 2 503 2 435 2 267
Growth Since 1990 (%) NA 9.9 72 96 105 99 85
Energy Exported (PJ) 2 999 5 373 6 937 7 321 7 645 7 588 7 861
Growth Since 1990 (%) NA 79 131 144 155 153 162
Apparent Domestic Consumption (PJ) 6 131 6 501 7 144 7 713 7 694 7 665 7 555
Growth Since 1990 (%) NA 6.0 17 26 25 25 23
Emissions Associated with Gross Exports (Mt CO2 eq) 27.8 51.0 65.0 69.4 72.6 71.8 75.4
Growth Since 1990 (%) NA 83 134 149 161 158 171
Emissions Associated with Net Exports1 (Mt CO2 eq) 21.5 42.9 47.5 46.2 47.9 48.3 53.9
Growth Since 1990 (%) NA 100 121 115 123 125 151

Notes:

1. See box on Net Export Emissions.

NA = Not applicable.

Increased Canadian fossil fuel exports have been offset, in part, by increased fossil fuel imports. Indeed, 58% more oil was imported in 2006 than in 1990. The balance between changes in exports, imports and production reflect an increase in apparent domestic consumption of 23% between 1990 and 2006 (Table S-6).

Activities associated with the oil and gas industry result in considerable GHG emissions. Between 1990 and 2006, increases in oil and gas production for export (principally to the United States) contributed substantially to emissions growth. Total emissions associated with the production, processing, and transmission of all oil and gas destined for export were about 75 Mt in 2006, up 171% from 1990 (Table S-6).

Net Export Emissions

The production, processing, and transmission of oil and gas results in considerable GHG emissions. Since Canada both exports and imports significant quantities of fuel, determination of emissions associated with net exports provides a clearer picture of emissions arising from domestic energy demand. Net export emissions are the Canadian emissions associated with extracting, processing, and transporting exported fuels minus the foreign emissions associated with the same activities for imported fuels. The emissions associated with net exports approximate the quantity of GHGs that would be ascribed to Canada if it was responsible only for those related to its own demand. Net exports rose from about 22 Mt in 1990 to 54 Mt in 2006 (a 151% increase; Table S-6).*

*Note that the long-term trends for net export emissions are more accurate than net export emissions calculated for any given year.

Back to top

ES.4.2 Provincial/Territorial GHG Emissions

It is important to note that Canada’s GHG emissions vary from region to region. This is linked to the distribution of natural resources and heavy industry within the country. While the use of natural resources and industrial products benefits all regions of North America, emissions from their production tend to be concentrated in particular geographic regions. Thus, certain jurisdictions in Canada tend to produce more GHG emissions because of their economic and industrial structure and their relative dependence on fossil fuels for producing energy. Figure S-4 illustrates the provincial/territorial distribution of emissions for 1990 and 2006.

Figure S-4: Total Provincial/Territorial GHG Emissions, 1990 and 2006

Figure S-4: Total Provincial/Territorial GHG Emissions, 1990 and 2006

Click to enlarge

Back to top

ES.4.3 The International Context

Canada contributes about 2% of total global GHG emissions. It is one of the highest per capita emitters, largely the result of its size, climate (i.e. energy demands), and resource-based economy. In 2005, Canada emitted a little over 22 t of GHGs per capita, which represents 3.2% growth since 1990, but a 5.7% decline since 2003 (see Table S-1).

In terms of total anthropogenic GHG emissions, Canada is among the eight Annex I Parties whose emissions increased more than 20% over the 1990-2004 period,13 ranking first among the G8 nations. Canada’s +25% growth (-6% Kyoto target) compares with Spain’s +49% growth (-8% target14), Greece’s +27% rise (-8% target14), and Japan’s +6.5% increase (-6% target). Parties whose emissions decreased by 2004 include the European Union (EU), by -1% (-8% target14), the United Kingdom, by -14% (-8% target14), and Germany, by -17% (-8% target14).

Back to top

1 Minor differences exist between the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Canada’s national inventory sector designations. These are explained in footnotes throughout this report. More details can be found in chapters 3 through 8, where the methodology used in Canada’s inventory is described. [Back]

2 Each of the GHGs has a unique average atmospheric lifetime over which it is an effective climate-forcing agent. The concept of global warming potential has been introduced to equate this climate forcing for different GHGs to that of CO2. A more detailed explanation is provided in Section 1.1.5 of this document. [Back]

3 Unless explicitly stated otherwise, all emission estimates given in Mt represent emissions of GHGs in Mt CO2 eq. [Back]

4 Sum of Fossil Fuel Industries, Pipelines (Transportation), and Fugitives. [Back]

5 Crude oil prices: (1990-2005) – Natural Resources Canada, Government of Canada, http://oee.nrcan.gc.ca/corporate/statistics/neud/dpa/handbook_tables.cfm?attr=0; (2006) – Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, 2007 Statistical Handbook, http://www.capp.ca/SHB/Sheet.asp?SectionID=5&SheetID=291 (both accessed March 2008). [Back]

6 There is also some overlap with Mining (which as a result of categorizations by the Alberta Energy Utilities Board and Statistics Canada includes a portion of oil sands production activities), but emissions from Mining are not included in this discussion of the fossil fuel industries. [Back]

7 A large portion of the refined petroleum products consumed in Canada are derived from imported oil. [Back]

8 Nyboer and Tu (2006) estimated that, per unit of output, GHG emissions from oil sands mining and upgrading are about five times greater than those from conventional light/medium crude oil production. [Back]

9 Statistics Canada, Energy Statistics Handbook, Feb. 2008. [Back]

10 Adapted from NRCan (2005). [Back]

11 A petajoule (PJ) is a measure of the energy content of fuels. [Back]

12 The source for all export and energy production data is Statistics Canada’s Report on Energy Supply-Demand in Canada (RESD, #57-003). The 1990-1995 GHG emissions associated with net exports are taken from a report prepared for Environment Canada (McCann 1997), while the 1996-2006 estimates were extrapolated from this report. [Back]

13 These aggregate estimates are based on data from Parties that submitted inventories to the UNFCCC in 2007. Source: UNFCCC (2007), http://unfccc.int/ghg_data/ghg_data_unfccc/time_series_annex_i/items/3841.php. [Back]

14 Although this -8% target was agreed to by all European Union (EU) Parties individually under the Kyoto Protocol, these countries also have a separate agreement under the “EU Bubble.” This agreement calls for each EU member to meet different targets, which were set in order to account for individual differences, so as to attain the collective EU target of -8%. [Back]

Back to top

---
The Green LaneTM, Environment Canada's World Wide Web site
Last updated: 2010-02-09
Last reviewed: 2010-02-09