November 22, 2009

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Home > Guidance > Calculating GHG Emissions > Protocols and Guidance Manuals > Analysis of Electricity Dispatch in Canada

6 Results

Dispatch Order

Through the use of the IPM® , the total monthly generation on the margin has been determined for each province modelled. Tables 3, 4, 5, 6 summarize IPM® 's output forecast of total monthly on-margin generation for the years 2004 to 2007.

Provincial Trends

• Alberta, Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick are predominantly powered by coal on the margin with some instances of natural gas.
  • This is slightly different in New Brunswick where Orimulsion plays a large part in total generation and is dispatched regularly on the margin. See Table 10.
  • Historically, Alberta is a winter-peaking province with a coal-based grid. Therefore, less gas would be used during the summer, low demand months as shown by the coal capacity on-margin in those months. Alberta is displayed in Table 8.
  • In Saskatchewan, ICF assumes that in shoulder months coal units are less available due to outages for maintenance etc. This lower availability, combined with import and gas prices, create the situation where U.S. imports are on-margin during shoulder months. Saskatchewan is detailed in Table 14.
• Ontario is a more diversified province in its electricity generation and a mix of fuels is seen on the margin. Ontario is typically nuclear and hydro baseloaded with mainly coal and imports on the margin as outlined in Tables 12 A and B.
  • Unlike current conditions in Ontario, the added nuclear power post 2004, reduces reliance on coal and U.S. imports. Therefore, coal and imports are often the on-margin units not baseload.
  • The changes in Ontario's on-margin capacity type, that is, bituminous, lignite and U.S. imports, reflect the forecasted changes in demand (increasing over the years), environmental constraints (ON NOx and SOx tighter caps, and pending carbon constraints) and fuel and power prices. The combination of these factors shifts the on-margin capacity type over time.

Provincial Trends Continued..

• British Columbia, Manitoba and Quebec are supplied power mainly through their baseloaded hydro operations.
  • In British Columbia, biomass rather than gas is dispatched on-margin as result of relatively low provincial demand and little fossil capacity. Natural gas does however cover the highest demand periods in the winter months. British Columbia is presented in Table 7.
  • Manitoba's marginal power generation is dominated by coal, except in the peak months of December and January when demand becomes high enough to acquire U.S. imports as displayed in Table 9.
  • Quebec has very low fossil fuel use and therefore has very low emission factors. The province relies mainly on biomass and landfill gas for marginal generation in the high and low demand months, respectively, however during higher demand periods, U.S. imports are on-margin. See Tables 13 A and B
  • Manitoba and Quebec are similar in their heavily baseloaded hydro systems, however Manitoba's on-margin unit is almost always coal with the exception of one month of importing. Manitoba is a winter peaking province. Therefore, December is the highest demand month and it is reasonable that they may have to import during this peak period. This gives Manitoba an emission factor of 1.02. Quebec's on-margin units are most often biomass and to a lesser extent landfill gas.
  • Quebec does have approximately 1.5 GW of oil and combustion turbine capacity, however they are rarely used. A Statistics Canada publication "Electric Power Generation, Transmission and Distribution, 1999" indicates they have a less than 3% capacity factor. This translates to approximately 250 hours per year. It is expected that the most conservative influence that gas would have on the emission intensities would be a gas value of less than 0.40 kg/kWh in the peak month of December.

Note: a "0.00" reflects the absence of a non-renewable on-margin capacity type, not the actual emission of the capacity type listed in previous tables.
Note: All emission intensities reflect CO₂e.

Note: a "0.00" reflects the absence of a non-renewable on-margin capacity type, not the actual emission of the capacity type listed in previous tables.
Note: All emission intensities reflect CO₂e.

Note: a "0.00" reflects the absence of a non-renewable on-margin capacity type, not the actual emission of the capacity type listed in previous tables.
Note: All emission intensities reflect CO₂e.

Note: a "0.00" reflects the absence of a non-renewable on-margin capacity type, not the actual emission of the capacity type listed in previous tables.
Note: All emission intensities reflect CO₂e.