WTCN31 CWHX 280000 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT SATURDAY 27 SEPTEMBER 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT ...HURRICANE JUAN HEADING TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA..EXPECTED LANDFALL OVER OR JUST WEST OF HALIFAX SUNDAY EVENING... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE JUAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.6 N AND LONGITUDE 63.5 W... ABOUT 480 NAUTICAL MILES OR 890 KM SOUTH OF HALIFAX. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS... 167 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 970 MB. JUAN IS MOVING JUST WEST OF NORTH AT 9 KNOTS... 17 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 27 9.00 PM 36.6N 63.5W 970 90 167 SEP 28 9.00 AM 40.6N 63.9W 975 75 139 SEP 28 9.00 PM 45.4N 63.6W 987 55 102 SEP 29 9.00 AM 51.9N 62.3W 997 40 74 POST-TROPICAL SEP 29 9.00 PM 60.3N 62.5W 991 45 83 ABSORBED BY OTHER LOW SEP 30 9.00 AM 69.4N 65.0W 988 55 102 ABSORBED BY OTHER LOW SEP 30 9.00 PM 78.0N 67.6W 985 55 102 ABSORBED BY OTHER LOW 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS FOR AMOUNTS UP TO 80 MM ARE FORECAST FOR MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA AND WESTERN CAPE BRETON. PEI IS ALSO UNDER A HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE BEING POSTED FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK. WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT WESTERNMOST NOVA SCOTIA. A WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PEI..MAGDELAN ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF NEW BRUNSWICK. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 140 KM/H WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 90 KM/H IN THE HALIFAX AREA. OTHERWISE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO GUST BETWEEN 90 AND 120 KM/H IN THE WARNING AREAS. IN ADDITION.. GUSTS TO 150 KM/H ASSOCIATED WITH SUETE WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE CAPE BRETON HIGHLANDS. NO SIGNIFICANT INLAND WEATHER EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEWFOUNDLAND. SEE PUBLIC FORECASTS FOR DETAILS. THE HIGH WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE TOPPLING OF SOME TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES. LOCAL FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO LOCAL FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH STORM SURGE AND HIGH WAVES. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HURRICANE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC MARINE AREAS ALONG THE TRACK OF JUAN. GALE AND STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR ADJACENT WATERS. SEE MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILS. STORM SURGE IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF HALIFAX COUNTY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SURGE MAY BE OF THE ORDER OF 3 TO 5 FEET OR 1.0 TO 1.5 METRES. THIS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE THE HIGH TIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE WAVES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE SURGE INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING AND EROSION. MODERATE TO HEAVY SURF CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE STORM THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY ALONG THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANZIED WITH SOLID AND COLD CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HIGHER NOW..ABOUT 90 KTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES. JUAN REMAINS A TIGHT SYSTEM WITH A CLOUD DIAMETER OF ONLY 200 NM. B. PROGNOSTIC THERE IS A NARROW ENVELOPE OF TRACK SCENARIOS AMONG THE MODELS PREDICTING A LANDFALLING HURRICANE OR STRONG TROPICAL STORM ANYWHERE FROM THE WEST END OF HALIFAX COUNTY TO THE EAST END. THE FORECAST DECISION IS TO BRING HURRICANE JUAN OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE CITY OF HALIFAX AROUND 6/7 PM SUNDAY NIGHT. JUAN CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH WARM WATER IN EXCESS OF 26C AND WILL MOVE OVER COLDER WATER NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AT 40N SUNDAY MORNING. SINCE WATER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE GULF STREAM AND THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST ARE RUNNING ABOVE 18C..THE WEAKENING TREND MAY BE SLOWED SOMEWHAT LEADING TO THE FORECAST OF A LANDFALLING HURRICANE SIMILAR TO HORTENSE IN 1996 AND BLANCHE IN 1975. JUAN WILL WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND TRANSFORM TO AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM IN THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE EARLY MONDAY. AN AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE AHEAD OF AND TO THE WEST OF THE STORM. THIS RAIN MAY BEGIN AS SOON AS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE FLOW TO THE WEST AND LARGE HIGH TO THE EAST WILL SEND JUAN ALMOST DUE NORTH CROSSING CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY MARK AN END TO THE INTENSIFICATION. KEEP IN MIND THAT THE STORM-RELATIVE SHEAR MAY NOT BE HIGH SO IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW THE HURRICANE WILL RESPOND TO THE FLOW. THE REMAINS OF JUAN WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LABRADOR ON MONDAY. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 28/00Z 260 260 120 120 110 110 55 55 20 25 25 20 28/12Z 280 260 150 150 110 110 50 50 20 20 20 15 29/00Z 275 240 135 135 65 65 30 30 0 0 0 0 29/12Z 315 270 135 135 15 15 10 10 0 0 0 0 30/00Z 340 285 135 135 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30/12Z 300 250 120 120 60 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 01/00Z 300 250 120 120 180 180 0 0 0 0 0 0 END..FOGARTY/PARKES