WTCN31 CWHX 270600 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT SATURDAY 27 SEPTEMBER 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT ... JUAN IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ITS SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE JUAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 N AND LONGITUDE 62.0 W... ABOUT 150 NAUTICAL MILES OR 280 KM NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS... 139 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 982 MB. JUAN IS MOVING NORTH AT 10 KNOTS... 18 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH JUAN IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ITS SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 27 3.00 AM 34.2N 62.0W 982 75 139 SEP 27 3.00 PM 36.0N 62.5W 981 75 139 SEP 28 3.00 AM 38.6N 63.3W 980 75 139 SEP 28 3.00 PM 42.0N 63.5W 980 70 130 SEP 29 3.00 AM 47.7N 61.5W 1000 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 29 3.00 PM 53.0N 58.0W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL SEP 30 3.00 AM 58.5N 53.5W 1008 35 65 POST-TROPICAL SEP 30 3.00 PM 63.5N 50.0W 1012 35 65 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS FOR AMOUNTS 50 TO 80 MM OVER PEI AND NOVA SCOTIA EXCEPT SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. WIND WARNING FOR GUSTS BETWEEN 100 TO 120 KM/H OVER NORTHEASTERN NOVA SCOTIA. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HURRICANE WIND WARNINGS FOR ATLANTIC MARINE AREAS ALONG TRACK OF JUAN. GALE OR STORM WARNINGS POSTED FOR ADJACENT WATERS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW IN ECLIPSE..HOWEVER EARLIER INDICATIONS SHOWED JUAN ON A NORTHWARD COURSE AT 10 KNOTS. EYE STRUCTURE HAS BEEN MAINTAINED SINCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. B. PROGNOSTIC JUAN CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH WARM WATER IN EXCESS OF 25C AND WILL ENTER COLDER WATER NORTH OF GULF STREAM AT 40 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE OR AROUND 12Z 28 SEPT. THERAFTER SHEAR ASSOCIATEED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN JUAN SOMEWHAT..BUT WE NOTE THAT THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF NOVA SCOTIA ARE ABNORMALLY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. JUAN WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER LANDFALL WHERE FRICTIONAL DRAG WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ITS EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION. FOLLOWING THE 500 MB FLOW FROM THE CANADIAN GLOBAL SUPPORTS NHC TRACK WHICH IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE FOLLOW CHC TRACK HERE. HOWEVER AS JUAN UNDERGOES EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION OVER NOVA SCOTIA.. WE PREFER TO ACCCELERATE JUAN SOMEWHAT IN INCREASING UPPER FLOW SO THE OLD CHC TRACK IS ROUGHLY MAINTAINED ESPECIALLY OVER GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. AS JUAN ENTERS LABRADOR SEA..WE FOLLOW UPPER FLOW AND KEEP JUAN WITHIN THICKNESS RIDGE SO IT DOES NOT BECOME CAPTURED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW AS WE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE END RESULT IS A TRACK THAT IS MORE EASTWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY STATED. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 27/06Z 200 130 90 90 40 40 30 30 20 20 20 20 27/18Z 230 150 90 90 40 40 30 30 20 20 20 20 28/06Z 250 180 90 90 40 40 40 40 20 20 20 20 28/18Z 250 200 80 80 50 50 30 30 20 20 20 20 29/06Z 270 240 70 70 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 29/18Z 230 220 70 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30/06Z 200 180 70 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30/18Z 200 150 80 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END CAMPBELL