WTCN31 CWHX 270000 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT FRIDAY 26 SEPTEMBER 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT ... JUAN IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ITS SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE JUAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.5 N AND LONGITUDE 62.1 W... ABOUT 140 NAUTICAL MILES OR 265 KM NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS... 126 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 986 MB. JUAN IS MOVING NORTH AT 10 KNOTS... 19 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH JUAN IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ITS SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 26 9.00 PM 33.5N 62.1W 986 65 120 SEP 27 9.00 AM 35.7N 62.9W 984 70 130 SEP 27 9.00 PM 38.0N 63.3W 983 70 130 SEP 28 9.00 AM 41.2N 63.4W 983 70 130 SEP 28 9.00 PM 46.2N 62.4W 996 55 102 SEP 29 9.00 AM 50.6N 60.3W 1001 48 89 POST-TROPICAL SEP 29 9.00 PM 55.5N 56.9W 1003 43 80 POST-TROPICAL SEP 30 9.00 AM 60.5N 58.0W 1005 38 70 POST-TROPICAL SEP 30 9.00 PM 63.1N 60.3W 1007 32 59 POST-TROPICAL OCT 01 9.00 AM 65.8N 61.9W 1009 26 48 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA AND EASTERN PEI SUNDAY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONCEIVABLY 50 TO 80 MM NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE TRACK. SOME LOW LYING AREAS MIGHT BE AT RISK OF FLOODING. STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE AS MUCH AS 110 KM/H AS IT MAKES LANDFALL.. WITH STRONGER WINDS IN GUSTS. SUETE WINDS ON THE NORTHWEST COAST OF CAPE BRETON WILL LIKELY BE 130 TO 140 KM/H. WRECKHOUSE WINDS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND LIKELY ON MONDAY WITH PASSAGE OF JUAN. THERE IS A RISK OF A STORM SURGE ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE STORM ARRIVES LATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED AND IS COINCIDENT WITH THE HIGH TIDE. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY IN OUTLOOK PERIOD..FOR SOUTHWESTERN WATERS CLOSE TO TRACK OF JUAN..WENT WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK PATH AND STORM INTENSITY. HOWEVER JUAN WILL LIKELY STILL BE AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF OUR MARINE AREAS AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OUTLOOK FOR WEST AND EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE MARINE AREAS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS CONVECTION REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AROUND JUAN SO CURRENT STRENGTH OF 65 KNOTS IS MAINTAINED. FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY JUAN APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTH AT ABOUT 10 KTS. B. PROGNOSTIC HOW QUICKLY JAUN ACCELERATES REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE... WHEN THIS OCCURS WILL HAVE IMPACT ON THE TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL IN THE MARITIMES. TRACK IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS AND SHOWS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT APPROACHES THE SCOTIAN SLOPE AS IT COMES UNDER STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. IT WILL NOT ENCOUNTER WATER COLDER THAN 24 C UNTIL IT IS NORTH OF LATITIUDE 40 DEG NORTH CONSEQUENTLY THE DURATION OF ITS PASSAGE OVER COLDER WATER WILL BE SHORT. WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM MAY BE SLOW. HOWEVER INCREASING WIND SHEAR MAY HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT IN WEAKENING JUAN. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A STORM SURGE ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA. AGAIN EVERYTHING DEPENDS UPON TIMING. WE ARE PRESENTLY IN A RUN OF HIGH TIDES. THE LOWER OF THE 2 HIGH TIDES OCCURS LATE SUNDAY EVENING. IF JUAN ARRIVES AT THE SAME TIME THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER OUR LATEST TRACK SUGGESTS AN EARLIER ARRIVAL WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY LESSEN ANY EFFECTS OF STORM SURGE. AFTER THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF THE MARITIMES IT SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHWARD AND BECOME ABSORBED IN THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH ..SUBSEQUENTLY STALLING IN THE DAVIS STRAIT. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 27/00Z 180 120 70 90 40 40 25 20 20 20 15 5 27/12Z 210 135 70 90 40 40 10 25 25 25 5 0 28/00Z 240 165 70 85 50 50 0 30 30 30 0 0 28/12Z 240 190 70 75 60 60 0 30 25 25 0 0 29/00Z 270 220 70 65 50 50 0 20 0 0 0 0 29/12Z 250 240 70 55 20 20 0 10 0 0 0 0 30/00Z 200 220 80 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30/12Z 200 175 90 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01/00Z 200 125 100 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01/12Z 200 75 110 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END CAMPBELL/MCILDOON