WTCN31 CWHX 261800 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT FRIDAY 26 SEPTEMBER 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT ... JUAN IS CONTINUING TO TRACK NORTH.... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE JUAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 N AND LONGITUDE 62.1 W... ABOUT 130 NAUTICAL MILES OR 245 KM EAST NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS... 120 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 988 MB. JUAN IS MOVING NORTH AT 8 KNOTS... 15 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 26 3.00 PM 32.8N 62.1W 988 65 120 SEP 27 3.00 AM 34.7N 62.6W 984 70 130 SEP 27 3.00 PM 36.7N 63.1W 983 70 130 SEP 28 3.00 AM 39.2N 63.5W 983 70 130 SEP 28 3.00 PM 43.4N 61.3W 992 60 111 SEP 29 3.00 AM 47.2N 62.3W 1000 50 93 SEP 29 3.00 PM 53.1N 57.4W 1002 45 83 POST-TROPICAL SEP 30 3.00 AM 58.0N 56.4W 1004 40 74 POST-TROPICAL SEP 30 3.00 PM 63.1N 59.6W 1006 35 65 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA AND PEI SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG WINDS FOR REMAINDER OF NOVA SCOTIA. POSSIBLE STORM SURGE ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY NIGHT. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY IN OUTLOOK PERIOD..FOR SOUTHWESTERN WATERS CLOSE TO TRACK OF JUAN..WENT WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK PATH AND STORM INTENSITY. HOWEVER JUAN WILL LIKELY STILL BE AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF OUR MARINE AREAS AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OUTLOOK FOR WEST AND EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE MARINE AREAS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. JAUN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AS A CONSEQUENCE. FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY JUAN APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTH AT ABOUT 8 KTS. B. PROGNOSTIC IT IS CURRENTLY MOVING QUITE SLOWLY. THE POINT WHERE IT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE REMAINS HARD TO DETERMINE...AND WHEN THIS OCCURS WILL HAVE IMPACT ON THE TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL IN THE MARITIMES. TRACK IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ALTHOUGH INITIAL FORWARD SPEEDS ARE REDUCED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND INCREASED IN LATTER STAGES OF THE TRACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG STEERING THAT JUAN WILL ENCOUNTER. IT WILL NOT ENCOUNTER WATER COLDER THAN 24 C UNTIL IT IS NORTH OF LATITIUDE 40 DEG NORTH CONSEQUENTLY THE DURATION OF ITS PASSAGE OVER COLDER WATER WILL BE SHORT. WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM MAY BE SLOW. HOWEVER INCREASING WIND SHEAR MAY HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT IN WEAKENING JUAN. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A STORM SURGE ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA. AGAIN EVERYTHING DEPENDS UPON TIMING. WE ARE PRESENTLY IN A RUN OF HIGH TIDES. THE LOWER OF THE 2 HIGH TIDES OCCURS LATE SUNDAY EVENING. IF JUAN ARRIVES AT THE SAME TIME THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER OUR LATEST SUGGESTS AN EARLIER ARRIVAL WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY LESSEN ANY EFFECTS OF STORM SURGE. AFTER THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF THE MARITIMES IT SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHWARD AND BECOME ABSORBED IN THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND LIKELY STALL IN THE DAVIS STRAIT. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 26/18Z 180 120 70 90 40 40 30 20 20 20 20 10 27/06Z 180 120 70 90 40 40 20 20 20 20 15 0 27/18Z 240 150 70 90 40 40 0 35 30 30 0 0 28/06Z 240 180 70 80 60 60 0 30 30 30 0 0 28/18Z 240 200 70 70 60 60 0 25 0 0 0 0 29/06Z 300 240 70 60 40 40 0 20 0 0 0 0 29/18Z 200 240 75 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30/06Z 200 200 85 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30/18Z 200 150 95 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END MCILDOON