WTCN31 CWHX 260000 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT THURSDAY 25 SEPTEMBER 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT ... TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15 UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM JUAN ... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM JUAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 N AND LONGITUDE 61.9 W... ABOUT 150 NAUTICAL MILES OR 280 KM EAST SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS... 83 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 996 MB. JUAN IS MOVING NORTH AT 7 KNOTS... 13 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 25 9.00 PM 31.4N 61.9W 996 45 83 SEP 26 9.00 AM 32.8N 62.3W 995 50 93 SEP 26 9.00 PM 34.3N 62.8W 994 55 102 SEP 27 9.00 AM 36.0N 63.3W 992 60 111 SEP 27 9.00 PM 38.3N 63.4W 991 60 111 SEP 28 9.00 AM 40.6N 63.3W 990 60 111 SEP 28 9.00 PM 43.5N 62.5W 990 55 102 SEP 29 9.00 AM 46.4N 61.5W 993 45 83 POST-TROPICAL SEP 29 9.00 PM 49.4N 60.2W 996 35 65 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY MUCH TOO EARLY TO GIVE SPECIFICS. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY ON SUNDAY MORNING JUAN ENTERS ATLANTIC WATERS OF THE MARITIME MARINE DISTRICT. ONCE IT MOVES INTO GULF OF ST LAWRENCE.. JUAN WILL HAVE WEAKENED TO A GALE PRODUCING SYSTEM. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS CIRCULATION CENTRE NOTED ON SATELLITE PHOTOS..HOWEVER AREA OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED. CIRRUS SHOWING EVIDENCE OF OUTFLOW ALOFT. B. PROGNOSTIC JUAN HAD ITS ORIGINS IN A WEAK UPPER LOW WHICH SEEMED TO BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION FOR MANY DAYS. GIVEN THE WARMTH OF THE SEA WATER AND THE SUPPLY OF VORTICITY BY THE UPPER LOW..AN AREA OF CONVECTION ORGANIZED ITSELF INTO ITS CURRENT SHAPE NOW IDENTIFIED AS JUAN. AT 250 HPA AND UP..ONE NOTES THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH MAINTAINS OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. THE UK MET IS HANDLING JUAN AS A MEANDERING LOW WHICH STRUGGLES SLOWLY ON A NORTH TO NORTHEAST TRACK..MUCH LIKE THE CANADIAN GLOBAL DID YESTERDAY. HOWEVER..TODAYS GLOBAL RUN WANTS TO NOW BRING JUAN NORTHWARD AS A MORE DEFINABLE SYSTEM..ESPECIALLY AS THE MERIDIONAL TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA SHARPENS UP AND INCHES EASTWARD. THIS SORT OF BEHAVIOUR HAS BEEN SEEN MANY TIMES IN THE PAST..BOTH THE MUCH-STUDIED KAREN AND MICHAEL COME INTO MIND. THIS IS STILL EARLY DAYS YET SO MY CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.. THE TRACK OF JUAN WILL HAVE TO HAVE LARGE ERROR BARS ATTACHED TO IT ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 26/00Z 180 100 20 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26/12Z 180 100 20 120 20 20 0 20 0 0 0 0 27/00Z 180 100 20 120 20 20 0 20 0 0 0 0 27/12Z 180 100 30 120 20 20 0 20 0 0 0 0 28/00Z 180 100 30 120 20 20 0 20 0 0 0 0 28/12Z 180 100 30 120 20 20 0 20 0 0 0 0 29/00Z 180 100 30 120 20 20 0 20 0 0 0 0 29/12Z 200 140 40 140 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30/00Z 200 140 40 140 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END CAMPBELL