Historical Christmas snowfall data

Will your Christmas be white and snowy?

Check the Environment and Climate Change Canada weather forecast. Since the weather forecast covers the next seven days, you can get the forecast for Christmas Day starting on December 19.

For those who can't wait, Environment and Climate Change Canada has analyzed 67 years of weather records for 45 major centres across Canada, and calculated the probability of having a white snow-covered Christmas Day.

The following table charts the amount of snowfall recorded for major cities across Canada from 1955-2021. From this, a probability can be made to determine if a white Christmas will occur for the current year.

Amount of snowfall recorded (in centimetres) for major cities across Canada from 1955 - 2021
City % Chance
(67 years) 1955-2021
% Chance
Recent

1997-2021
% Chance
Early

1960-1984
Change in
frequency (%)
(Recent-Early)
Perfect
Christmas
(%)
1955-2007
Snow depth
Recent

1997-2021
Snow depth
Early

1960-1984
Change in
snow depth (cm)
(Recent-Early)
Number of
green Christmases

Recent
1988-2021
Number of
green Christmases

Past
1955-1987
Brandon 94 92 96 -4 28 17 13 4 2 2
Barrie* 76 72 76 -4
n/a 16 16
0
9
n/a
Buttonville** 56 56 60 -4
n/a 5
5 0 14
n/a
Calgary 61
64 72 -8 4 5 6
-1
13 13
Charlottetown 75 52 92 -40 48 7 17 -10 14 3
Edmonton 88 84 100 -16 20 13 17 -4 5 3
Fredericton 72 44
88 -44 30 6
21 -15 16 3
Goose Bay 99 96 100 -4 53 46 62 -16 1 0
Grand Prairie 87 84 100 -16 26 17 22 -5 6
3
Halifax 52 36 68 -32 24 2 10
-8 20 11
Hamilton 60 56
68 -12
26 6
5 1
13 13
Iqaluit 100 100 100 0 51 17 21 -4 0 0
Kamloops 52 52 56 -4
25 5 11 -6 17 15
Kelowna 64 56 76 -20 26 5 9 -4 14 10
Kenora 100 100 100 0 43 19 32 -13 0 0
Kitchener-Waterloo 69 60 76 -16 45 7 9 -2 11
4
Lethbridge 49
44
60 -16 6 5 6
-1 18 16
London 66 48 80 -32 33 7 10
-3 14 9
Medicine Hat 57 52 72 -20 17 4 7
-3 16 13
Moncton 72 64 80 -16 40 9 22 -13 12 7
Montreal 75 68
84 -16 25 8 16 -8 11
6
Ottawa 79 72 84 -12 35 16 17 -1 8 6
Prince George 90 84
96 -12 40 14 20 -6 6 1
Penticton 31 28
32 -4 11 3 4 -1 24 22
Quebec 97 92 100 -8 60 23 42 -19 2 0
Regina 87
76 92 -16
38 11 14 -3 6
3
Saint John 57
40 72 -32 36 4 14 -10 20 9
Sarnia 57 36
84 -48 19 4 10 -6 22 7
Saskatoon 93 80 100 -20 22 9 13 -4 5
0
St. John's 66 68 56 12 24 8 10 -2 11 12
Sault Ste Marie*** 90
84 96 -12 69 16 25 -9 5 1
Stephenville 81 72 92 -20 64 16 23 -7 10 3
Sudbury 94 92 100 -8 46 18 22 -4 3 1
Sydney 58 44 72 -28 46 5 12
-7 18 10
Thunder Bay 97 92 100 -8 38 12 21 -9 2 0
Timmins 99 96 100 -4 46 25 47 -22 1 0
Toronto City 45 40 56 -16 9 5 5
0
21 16
Toronto (GTA) 51 40 68 -28 13 4 6
-2
18 14
Vancouver 9
8 8 0
4 2 2
0 29 31
Victoria 12 16 8 8 6 2 1
1
28 31
Whitehorse 100 100 100 0 27 19 25 -6 0 0
Wiarton 79 68 84
-16 54 12 20 -8 9 5
Windsor 43 44 56 -12 4 4 4 0 21
17
Winnipeg 99 96 100 -4 11 15 14 1
1 0
Yellowknife 100 100 100 0 27 26 24 2 0 0
Averages 72% 66% 79% 14% 31% 11 16 -5 11 7

* Data compiled from a shorter period: 1980-2019
** Data compiled from a shorter period: 1986-2019
*** Data compiled from a shorter period: 1961-2019

Definitions

  • % Chance: probability of a white Christmas (snow on the ground of 2 cm or more on Christmas morning at 7 a.m. EST) for full period of 67 years from 1955-2021
  • % Chance Recent Period: for children today based on period 1997-2021 (25 years)
  • % Chance Early Period: for parents today when they were children based on period 1960-1984 (25 years)
  • Perfect Christmas: snow on the ground of 2 cm or more on Christmas morning and snow in the air sometime Christmas day, i.e., a measurable snowfall on Christmas based on period 1955-2007
  • Snow depth Recent Period: average depth of snow on the ground (cm) on Christmas morning from 1997 to 2021
  • Snow depth Early Period: average depth of snow on the ground (cm) on Christmas morning from 1960 to 1984
  • Number of green Christmases: for the 34-year period 1988-2021 inclusive
  • Number of green Christmases: for the 33-year period 1955-1987 inclusive

Page details

Date modified: