Progress Toward Canada’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Target
This indicator presents projections of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Canada to the year 2020. These projections originate from Canada's Emissions Trends 2012, published by Environment Canada. The publication, now in its second edition, presents emissions projections to 2020 and explains how a number of variables, including announced provincial and federal government actions, influence the trend in Canada’s GHG emissions.
Published in August 2012, Canada’s Emissions Trends 2012 projects that Canada’s GHG emissions will be 720 megatonnes (Mt)[1] in 2020. This is an improvement from the GHG emissions levels projected via the initial Canada’s Emissions Trends 2011 analysis conducted in December 2010. The initial report projected that Canada’s GHG emissions would be 850 Mt in 2020 in the absence of government measures, and that announced federal and provincial measures would reduce projected emissions to 785 Mt.
In the year 2020, the gap between Canada’s GHG emissions target of 607 Mt is now projected to be 113 Mt. This means that Canada’s 2020 emissions are projected to be one half of the way to the target.
Canada’s historical greenhouse gas emissions and projections to 2020
Note: The “2011 No Government Actions” line illustrates projected emissions for a scenario conducted in Canada’s Emissions Trends 2011 assuming the absence of government action. The “2011 Trend Line” illustrates projected emissions for a scenario conducted in Canada’s Emission Trends 2011 assuming government actions announced up to December 2010. The “2012 Trend Line” illustrates projected emissions for a scenario conducted in Canada’s Emissions Trends 2012 assuming government actions announced up to May 2012.
Source: Environment Canada (2012) Canada’s Emissions Trends 2012.
The future path of GHG emissions in Canada will depend on a number of factors including: government actions, technological change, the growth in the economy, and developments in energy markets. The analysis presented in Canada's Emissions Trends 2012 incorporates the most up-to-date statistics on greenhouse gas emissions and energy available at the time of modeling.
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[1] Canada’s Emissions Trends 2012 includes 25 Mt of emissions reductions from Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry that were not included in Canada’s Emissions Trends 2011.
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