Seasonal Outlook for the Gulf of St Lawrence and East Newfoundland Waters - Winter 2011-2012

Water temperatures at the end of November were above normal, except near normal along most of the Labrador coast (Figure 3). For December, the air temperature is forecast to be near normal along the southern Labrador coast and normal to above normal east of Newfoundland.  

Ice will continue to develop in Lake Melville and grey and grey-white ice will cover most of the lake near mid-December. New and grey ice will continue to be present along the Labrador coast from around Cartwright and northward.

At the end of the year, new and grey ice will be present along the Labrador coast northwest of Belle-Isle and will extend 10 to 20 nautical miles off the southern coast of Labrador. Shallower areas along the coast of Labrador will be consolidated with grey-white ice. At that time, Lake Melville will be covered with grey-white with some first-year ice; consolidated grey-white and first-year ice will be found in the shallower areas around the lake. Some new and grey ice will form near St. Anthony. Also at the end of 2011, new ice will develop in the shallower areas of Notre Dame Bay.

Consolidated grey and grey-white ice will develop south of Fogo Island by mid-January; at that time, new ice will be present near Botwood. Also by mid-month, grey ice will extend 40 nautical miles off the Labrador coast and will reach the Northern Peninsula. At that time, Lake Melville will be consolidated with grey-white and first-year ice. Consolidated first-year ice will be found from Cartwright and northward along the Labrador coast.

After mid-month, consolidated first-year ice will prevail in the shallower areas of the south coast of Labrador and the Strait of Belle-Isle will become covered with new and grey ice. The southern portion of Bay of Exploits will be covered with grey-white ice. Some new and grey ice will be found elsewhere in the shallower areas along the shore from Notre Dame Bay and northward.

Near the end of January, grey and grey-white ice will reach the Grey Islands, east of the Northern Peninsula, and grey-white ice will be present in the Strait of Belle Isle; mostly in its southern half. At that time, the southern portion of Bay of Exploits will become consolidated with first-year and grey-white ice. Also near the end of January, some first-year ice will be found in the pack ice off the south coast of Labrador. First-year ice will prevail in the pack ice north of Groswater Bay.

In the first week of February, the pack ice edge will reach the Baie Verte Peninsula and grey and grey-white ice with some first-year ice will extend to 80 nautical miles east of the Northern Peninsula and up to 100 nautical miles east of the south coast of Labrador. At that time, first-year ice will prevail in the southern portion of the Strait of Belle Isle. Also in the first week of February, some new ice will form in the shallower areas of Bonavista Bay.

In the second week of the February, patches of new ice with some grey and grey-white ice will be found along the shores in Notre Dame Bay. Some grey and grey-white ice will reach Cape Freels. From that point on, bouts of north-easterly winds may bring ice into Notre Dame Bay. The pack ice edge will extend to about 130 nautical miles east of the southern coast of Labrador and about 130 nautical miles east of the Northern Peninsula.

Consolidated first-year ice   in the southern portion of Bay of Exploits and south of Fogo Island will thicken to the first-year ice stage after mid-February. At that time, some grey and grey-white ice will reach northern Bonavista Bay and consolidated grey-white ice will be present in the shallower coastal areas of northern Bonavista Bay.

The main pack ice will reach Fogo Island and Cape Bonavista near the end of February. Patches of grey-white with some first-year ice will be present in Notre Dame Bay. At that time, first-year ice will prevail in the pack ice off the north-east coast. Bouts of north-easterly winds could bring ice into Bonavista and Notre Dame Bays.

A trace of old ice will be present in the pack ice off the southern coast of Labrador from early March until ice melt. Little southward progress will be made by the pack ice edge in the first two weeks of March.  Ice intrusions in Bonavista and Notre Dame Bay will remain possible. As well strong onshore flow could occasionally produce strong ice pressure along the northeast coast of Newfoundland. Break up along the southern Labrador coast and in the Newfoundland waters should proceed at a faster than normal pace. Forecast ice conditions for the end of March and mid-April are shown in Figure 7 and Figure 8 respectively.