Facility Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reporting Program – Overview of Reported 2010 Emissions
5 Long-term Trend, 2005–2010
Over the period 2005–2010, the total number of facilities reporting increased from 337 in 2005 to 537 in 2010, while total emissions decreased by 14.4 Mt (5%) in the same time frame (Table 3). Annual fluctuations have occurred in the number of facilities reporting over this time frame, which was expected since emissions for some facilities may be below or above the reporting threshold in any given year, and the number of voluntary reporters may change each year. The threshold was also reduced for the 2009 reporting year from 100 to 50 kt CO2 eq, which had greatly increased the number of facilities reporting for the 2009 and 2010 reporting years.
The long-term trend analysis presented in this section takes into consideration the comparable facilities from 2005 to 2010, meaning only those facilities that reported GHG emissions in every year over this period. As mentioned in the previous section, analyzing comparable facilities (i.e. facilities that have reported every year) can provide a more accurate representation of the overall trend in reported emissions, as it removes the variability in the number of facilities reporting each year, especially given the change in threshold.
Focusing on comparable facilities over the long term (2005–2010), there are 277 comparable facilities, and their emissions represent a large portion of the total emissions reported each year (over 96% from 2005 to 2008, 90% for 2009 and 88% for 2010). Since 2005, the overall total emissions from comparable facilities declined by 37.4 Mt or 14.0% (Table 4). The largest annual change in emissions for these facilities was the 10.9% decrease that occurred between 2008 and 2009. More recently (between 2009 and 2010), the annual emissions for these facilities increased by 1.7%.
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009* | 2010 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number of facilities | 337 | 345 | 352 | 351 | 533 | 537 |
| Emissions (kt CO2 eq) | 276 256 | 270 173 | 275 780 | 261 974 | 251 047 | 261 869 |
| Annual change (%) | NA | -2.2% | 2.1% | -5.0% | -4.2% | 4.3% |
| Change since 2005 (%) | NA | -2.2% | -0.2% | -5.2% | -9.1% | -5.2% |
* Reporting threshold changed in 2009.
Note: NA = not applicable.
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number of facilities | 277 | 277 | 277 | 277 | 277 | 277 |
| Emissions (kt CO2 eq) | 266 688 | 260 997 | 265 641 | 252 915 | 225 400 | 229 302 |
| Annual change (%) | NA | -2.1% | 1.8% | -4.8% | -10.9% | 1.7% |
| Change since 2005 (%) | NA | -2.1% | -0.4% | -5.2% | -15.5% | -14.0% |
* Comparable facilities are the 277 facilities that reported every year between 2005 and 2010.
Note: NA = not applicable.
The provincial/territorial long-term trend for comparable facilities (Figure 6) shows an overall decline in emissions for most provinces and territories. The decline in emissions between 2005 and 2010 in Ontario is mostly due to a drop of 16.2 Mt in the Utilities sector, followed by a drop of 9.6 Mt in the Manufacturing sector. Emissions reported by facilities in New Brunswick declined by 4.4 Mt, mainly due to a 4.0 Mt drop in emissions from the Utilities sector. British Columbia displayed a 1.9 Mt drop in emissions, attributable to decreases in all sectors, but mainly from the Manufacturing sector (1.0 Mt) and Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction (0.6 Mt). Saskatchewan had an overall decrease in emissions of 0.5 Mt over the long term. In contrast with this general trend, increases in emissions were observed in the Mining, Quarrying and Oil and Gas Extraction sector in Alberta and Quebec (8.1 Mt and 0.1 Mt respectively) and the Utilities (0.8 Mt) and Manufacturing sectors (0.2 Mt) in Saskatchewan.
Figure 6: Provincial long-term change, 2005–2010, for comparable facilities*
* Comparable facilities are the 277 facilities that reported every year between 2005 and 2010.
** “Other” includes various types of facilities such as pipeline transportation of natural gas, solid waste landfills and universities.
Among the three largest contributors to the long-term trend, by NAICS industry sector,4 emissions from comparable facilities in the Utilities and Manufacturing sectors have declined, while emissions from Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction have slightly increased since 2005 (Figure 7). The Utilities sector exhibits significant variability that reflects the many factors affecting this sector, such as fuel costs (particularly oil and natural gas), weather, generation sources (nuclear, coal, hydro, wind), and demand by the manufacturing and residential sectors.
Figure 7: Long-term sectoral trend, 2005–2010, for comparable facilities*
* Comparable facilities are the 277 facilities that reported every year between 2005 and 2010.
One of the industries showing the largest change in emissions from 2005 to 2010 is the Utilities sector (Figure 8). The decrease in emissions in this sector results from a combination of the increase in electricity generated by hydroelectric dams, economic activity, investment in renewables and increased conservation efforts. It also reflects the long-term decline in fossil-fuel electric power generation emissions in Ontario, which has reduced its coal-fired capacity over the period.
The non-conventional oil extraction sector shows an overall increase (9.1 Mt) in emissions since 2005, reflecting this sector’s steady growth trend over time. Over the 2005 to 2010 period, crude bitumen and synthetic crude oil production have increased 62% and 42% respectively.11
Emissions from facilities in the pipeline transportation of natural gas sector have decreased by 5.3 Mt from 2005 to 2010. Iron and steel have declined over the long term by 3.5 Mt but exhibited a short-term increase of 2.5 Mt.
Within the Manufacturing sector, a gradual decrease in iron and steel production since 2005 is observed (with a sharper decrease happening between 2008 and 2009), due to the lowering of the domestic and international demand for steel products and the global recession in 2009. However, the production of steel increased considerably in 2010 (by 41% compared to 2009),12 and hence the overall 2005–2010 rate of decrease in emissions from the sector was moderated.
Figure 8: Top five long-term changes by NAICS4 industry sector, 2005–2010, for comparable facilities*
* Comparable facilities are the 277 facilities that reported every year between 2005 and 2010.
11. Energy Resources Conservation Board. 2011. Alberta’s Energy Reserves 2010 and Supply/Demand Outlook 2011-2020: ST98-2011. 2009. Available online at www.ercb.ca/docs/products/sts/st98_current.pdf
12. Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 41-019.
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