A Climate Change Plan for the Purposes of the Kyoto Protocol Implementation Act -- May 2009

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Canada’s Emissions Levels from 2008 to 2012

In accordance with paragraph 5 (1) (c), the text and the table below set out Canada’s projected greenhouse gas emission levels for 2008 to 2012 and how these levels compare with Canada’s obligations under Article 3, paragraph 1, of the Kyoto Protocol. In addition to the levels in the table below, provincial plans and actions are expected to lower Canada’s emission levels over the period of 2008 to 2012. However, it is premature to estimate the resulting emissions reductions in the context of this Plan. The projected emission levels will be verified by the national inventory reports, the first of which will be due on April 15, 2010, with the final report for 2012 due on April 15, 2014. The degree to which Canada has met its emissions reduction obligations under the Kyoto Protocol will be assessed after its final report has been filed in 2014.

Canada’s allowable emissions under the Kyoto Protocol for the period 2008 to 2012 are 2,792 Mt.

The Government of Canada used Environment Canada’s integrated Energy, Emissions and Economy Model for Canada (E3MC) to estimate the reduction for the overall integrated package of measures. The modeled runs incorporated the individual initiatives and aggregated the results to estimate Canada’s net emission reductions from a continuing trends baseline to report the remaining emission levels for 2008-2012. This baseline already incorporates many measures and trends currently underway across Canada. Some of the measures included in the baseline are complimentary to federal policies presented in this report. The date of January 1, 2006 was used as a the cut-off point for defining existing measures that are to be included in the energy and emissions baseline projections. As such, to avoid double-counting, the impacts from these measures are not included in the total emissions reductions. The use of the model responds to the National Round Table’s suggested methodological improvement for an "integrative accounting of the emission reduction estimates".

There are a number of key determinants that influence energy supply and demand, and emissions. These determinants include: the pace of economic growth; population and household formation; energy prices (e.g., world oil price and price of refined petroleum products, regional natural prices, and electricity prices); technological change and policy decisions. Varying any one of these assumptions could have a material impact on the energy and emissions outlook.

The sensitivity analysis focuses on two key drivers – world oil price and economic (or Gross Domestic Product) growth. Economic growth is correlated with growth in energy and emissions. Likewise, oil price changes affect the macro-economy, as well as exerting an influence on consumer behavior (e.g., a change in energy prices will encourage consumers to purchase more energy efficient products or reduce their overall energy consumption).

Emissions Levels – Reference Case

Under the reference case, and excluding the measures presented in this Plan, Canada’s baseline emissions levels are expected to increase from 749 Mt in 2008 to 790 Mt in 2012. Under the reference case, the economy is projected to grow at 2.2 percent per year over the 2008 to 2012 period. Over the same period, the world oil prices are assumed to average about $75 per barrel (in US$2008).

With the measures presented in this Plan – including both federal measures and provincial/territorial measures – emissions levels are expected to be about 1 Mt below the baseline at 748 Mt in 2008 and about 74 Mt below the baseline at 716 Mt in 2012. Given the reductions anticipated from the measures in this Plan, Canada expects to be 802 Mt above its Kyoto Protocol target of 2,792 Mt during the 2008 to 2012 period.

Canada’s Emission Levels
Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Projected Emissions Excluding Government Measures (Mt) 749 739 743 766 790
Expected Emissions Including Government Measures (Mt) 748 737 691 702 716
Expected Emissions Reductions (Mt)7 1 2 52 64 74

Emissions Levels – Alternative Scenario

Given the uncertainty concerning the pace of economic growth and world oil prices, an alternative scenario has also been constructed. This scenario was selected as the most prudent, both in terms of forecasting baseline emissions growth, and in terms of estimating reductions anticipated from the measures in this Plan.

In this alternative scenario, the economy is projected to grow at 1.7 percent per year over the 2008 to 2012 period.  Over the same period, the world oil prices are assumed to average about $98 per barrel (in US$2008). Under this alternative scenario, the combined effect of higher energy prices and lower economic growth results in a lower emissions forecast. Canada’s baseline emissions levels, excluding the measures presented in this Plan, are expected to increase from 749 Mt in 2008 to 770 Mt in 2012, putting emissions in that year some 20 Mt lower than in the reference case scenario.

With the measures included in this Plan, using of the “low” expected reductions where available, emissions are expected to be about 1 Mt below the baseline at 748 Mt in 2008 and about 66 Mt below the baseline at 704 Mt in 2012. Canada’s emissions would therefore be 757 Mt above its Kyoto Protocol target of 2,792 Mt during the 2008 to 2012 period.

Canada’s Emission Levels Under the Alternative Scenario
Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Projected Emissions Excluding Government Measures (Mt) 749 725 724 746 770
Expected Emissions Including Government Measures (Mt) 748 724 682 690 704
Expected Emissions Reductions (Mt)8 1 1 42 56 66



7 The estimated emission reductions are based on the targets outlined in the 2008 Regulatory Framework as well as the program measures detailed above.

8 Ibid

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