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Performance Report on Environment Canada's 2011–2012 Departmental Sustainable Development Strategy

Part 3: EC's Clean Air Agenda Programs: Performance Achievements for 2011-2012


Climate Change Prediction and Scenarios Program

Link to 2011-2012 Departmental Program Activity Architecture (PAA)

Climate Information, Predictions and Tools

CAA Program Description and Expected Achievements

The aim of the Climate Change Prediction and Scenarios Program is to ensure that

  • Environment Canada's global and regional climate models are enhanced, such that they are better able to simulate climate events, including climate extremes, and are used to produce updated climate change projections and scenarios

  • Environment Canada actively contributes to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report and participates in the international science community to influence priorities and work programs to support federal adaptation information needs and ensure that Canada's adaptation programs and activities are based on the best available science

  • National infrastructure codes and standards are informed by relevant climate science (including climate extremes), climate impacts and new and improved climatic design information

  • Policy support in the form of analysis and intra- and interdepartmental coordination is provided for issues associated with climate change adaptation

Expected Achievements:

Environment Canada's Climate Change Prediction and Scenarios Program ensures that Canada's national climate modelling activities are maintained through enhancements to and operation of global and regional climate models and the development of improved climate change scenarios (including climate extremes). It also provides policy analysis and research for issues associated with climate change adaptation, including the advancement of the Federal Adaptation Policy Framework. The program aims to deliver Environment Canada's contribution of climate model runs to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report. The development and improvement of EC's global and regional climate models will continue and the resulting climate information will be accessible on the internet and via peer-reviewed publications. The program also ensures that specialized information on climate extremes for infrastructure design, codes and standards are developed or updated.

CAA Program Achievements / Performance Summary

In 2011-2012, Environment Canada completed its climate model runs for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5). This project provides the framework for coordinated climate change experiments, establishing a multi-model ensemble of simulations for assessment in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (to be released in 2013-2014). A new regional climate model was used to downscale global climate change projections for the North American, Arctic, and African domains, and served as a contribution to an international regional downscaling intercomparison project (CORDEX - Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment). Additional global climate simulations continue to be run in support of targeted international studies focused on climate predictability and modes of climate variability. Global and regional climate model outputs were made available to users via the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) website. Research results were widely disseminated through peer-reviewed publications. Climate change scenarios based on Canadian and other climate models were delivered via the Canadian Climate Change Scenarios Network website, which was integrated on a centralized server in 2011-2012. Furthermore, the program developed updated climatic design information in cooperation with the Canadian Standards Association for the development of new codes and standards for Canadian infrastructure. The models and scenarios developed under this Program continued to provide updated climate change information, which contributed to the awareness and understanding of the risks of climate change as well as aided in the development of adaptation strategies and climate policy at the global and regional levels.

See also FSDS Implementation Strategy 1.1.4 in related performance information.

CAA Program Lessons Learned

Environment Canada streamlined the management and delivery of the Canadian Climate Change Scenarios Network website by amalgamating the network to a centralized server housed at the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis.

Clean Air Agenda Program Spending Information29
($) millions
Total CAA Program Approved Spending 2011-2016Program Planned Spending in 2011-2012Program Actual Spending in 2011-2012

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29 Total CAA Program Approved Spending 2011-2016 and Program Planned Spending in 2011-2012 include the following: Salary; Employee Benefit Plan; Operations And Maintenance; Capital; Grants and Contributions; and Corporate Support, but excludes PWGSC accommodation costs, consistent with TBS guidance on departmental reporting on expenditures. Program Actual Spending in 2011-2012 includes the following: Salary; Operations And Maintenance; Capital; and Grants and Contributions, but excludes Employee Benefit Plan; Corporate Support; and PWGSC accommodation costs.

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