This page has been archived on the Web
Information identified as archived is provided for reference, research or recordkeeping purposes. It is not subject to the Government of Canada Web Standards and has not been altered or updated since it was archived. Please contact us to request a format other than those available.
Threats to Water Availability in Canada
- Publishing Information
- Environment Canada Steering Committee, Production Team, Editors, Authors, External Reviewers
- Threats to Water Availability in Canada - A Perspective
- Short Chapter Summaries
- 1. Water Allocations, Diversion and Export
- 2. Dams, Reservoirs and Flow Regulation
- 3. Droughts
- 4. Floods
- 5. Municipal Water Supply and Urban Development
- 6. Manufacturing and Thermal Energy Demands
- 7. Land Use Practices and Changes - Agriculture
- 8. Land-Use Practices and Changes - Forestry
- 9. Land-Use Practices and Changes - Mining and Petroleum Production
- 10. Climate Variability and Change - Groundwater Resources
- 11. Climate Variability and Change - Rivers and Streams
- 12. Climate Variability and Change - Lakes and Reservoirs
- 13. Climate Variability and Change - Wetlands
- 14. Climate Variability and Change - Crysophere
- 15. Integrated and Cumulative Threats to Water Availability
10. Climate Variability and Change - Groundwater Resources
Alfonso Rivera,1 Diana M. Allen2 and Harm Maathuis3
1 Natural Resources Canada, Geological Survey of Canada, Quebec, QC
2 Simon Fraser University, Department of Earth Sciences, Burnaby, BC
3 Saskatchewan Research Council, Saskatoon, SK
It has long been known that natural climate variability and climate change both affect water levels in aquifers. One can predict that as an important part of the hydrologic cycle, groundwater resources will be affected by climate change in relation to the nature of recharge, the kinds of interactions between the groundwater and surface water systems, and changes in water use (e.g., irrigation). We expect that changes in temperature and precipitation will alter recharge to groundwater aquifers, causing shifts in water table levels in unconfined aquifers as a first response (Changnon et al., 1988; Zektser and Loaiciga, 1993). Decreases in groundwater recharge will not only affect water supply, but may also lead to reduced water quality. There may also be detrimental environmental effects on fisheries and other wildlife as a result of changes to the baseflow dynamics in streams (e.g., Gleick, 1986). Other potential impacts include altering the equilibrium in coastal aquifers (e.g., Custodio, 1987; Lambrakis, 1997; Vengosh and Rosenthal, 1994), and reducing the volume of water stored in aquifers with associated potential for increased land subsidence (e.g., California, Mexico City).
From a regional or national perspective, our understanding of climate variability and change impacts on groundwater resources--related to availability, vulnerability and sustainability of freshwater--remains limited. Two important factors serve to complicate and limit our understanding and ability to measure these potential impacts directly.
Timing of Recharge: Climate variability is defined as the natural, often cyclic, and high frequency variation in climate. In contrast, climate change may be either natural or human-induced, and displays longer-term trends. While surface waters typically see rapid response to climate variability, the response of groundwater systems is often difficult to detect because the magnitude of the response is lower and delayed. Longer-term variations in climate are often well preserved in aquifers (e.g., Pleistocene climate impacts). Thus, the magnitude and timing of the impact of climate variability and change on aquifers, as reflected in water levels, are difficult to recognize and quantify. This is because of the difference in time frame that exists between climate variations and the aquifer's response to them.
Aquifer Character: Different types of aquifers respond differently to surface stresses. Shallow aquifers consisting of weathered or fractured bedrock or unconsolidated sediments are more responsive to stresses imposed at the ground surface compared to deeper aquifers. These tend to be more isolated from surface conditions by overlying aquitards (e.g., van der Kamp and Maathuis, 1991a). Similarly, shallow aquifers are affected by local climate changes, whereas water levels in deeper aquifers are affected by regional changes. Therefore, climate variability, being of relatively short term compared to climate change, will have greater impact on these shallow aquifer systems. In contrast, deep aquifers have an increased capacity to buffer the effects of climate variability, and are therefore able to preserve the longer-term trends associated with climate change. It is important to note, however, that deep aquifers can be vulnerable to climate variability. As shallow groundwater resources become limited or contaminated, deeper groundwater resources are often exploited (e.g., Texas).
Groundwater Level Data
Groundwater level data provide a direct means of measuring the impacts of both natural and anthropogenic changes to groundwater resources. The stresses caused by these changes affect recharge to, storage in, and discharge from aquifers (e.g., Taylor and Alley, 2001; Gilliland, 1967), and generally alter or disrupt the overall water balance. Most hydrogeologic assessments, which are conducted for the purpose of aquifer characterization, modelling, and yield assessment, include some analysis and interpretation of well hydrograph data.
Despite the fact that some groundwater level networks have been in operation for decades, there are only a few publications providing an interpretation of hydrographs. Gabert (1986) and Maathuis and van der Kamp (1986) provided a qualitative assessment of hydrographs for Alberta and Saskatchewan, respectively. In addition, van der Kamp and Maathuis (1991a) and van der Kamp and Schmidt (1997) showed that hydrographs for deep semi-confined aquifers can be used for assessment of soil moisture conditions at a regional scale. To date, little has been done in Canada to relate hydrographs to climatic variables (e.g., Rutulis, 1989; Chen and Grasby, 2001; Rivard et al., 2003), nor have hydrograph data been used systematically to specifically address the question of the impact of climate variability on aquifers and groundwater resources.
Some of the most important potential impacts to groundwater are described further below.
Recharge: Spatial and temporal changes in temperature and precipitation may act to modify the surface hydraulic boundary conditions of, and ultimately cause a shift in the water balance for, an aquifer. For example, variations in the amount of precipitation, the timing of precipitation events, and the form of precipitation are all key factors in determining the amount and timing of recharge to aquifers. Water levels in an aquifer are often observed to respond consistently to precipitation, although the nature of the response can be complex and depends on time of year and prior conditions, etc. These data may be used in calibrating numerical models because they provide a temporal record of the aquifer response to recharge. In most instances, the water level response to precipitation is positive, slightly delayed in the aquifer, attenuated with depth, and is more pronounced in unconfined than in semi-confined aquifers. However, recent studies have shown that increased annual precipitation does not necessarily correspond to an increase in recharge as would be anticipated (e.g., Rivard et al., 2003; Nastev et al., 2002).
The occurrence of droughts or heavy precipitation can also be expected to impact water levels in aquifers. Droughts result in declining water levels not only because of reduction in rainfall, but also due to increased evaporation and a reduction in infiltration that may accompany the development of dry topsoils. Extreme precipitation events (e.g., heavy rainfall and storms) may lead to less recharge to groundwater because much of the precipitation is lost as runoff. However, in Manitoba, infrequent heavy rainfall events, in the order of a 1-in-10 or 1-in-50 year storm, can "top up" aquifers that have suffered from years of decline (Betcher, personal communication). So, despite the fact that over the course of a year cumulative precipitation may be greater for an area, the total amount of recharge to the aquifer may be less.
Variations in temperature and precipitation, along with other factors, such as wind speed, vegetation, etc., will affect evapotranspiration. Determining evapotranspiration is difficult even when site-specific data are available. Predicting changes to rates and magnitudes of evapotranspiration that might accompany climate change, and thus impact groundwater resources in an aquifer will be particularly challenging. To date, there are few studies that address this issue.
Groundwater-surface water interactions: In many regions of Canada, groundwater interacts strongly with surface water. Thus, the interactions between surface and ground water are important mechanisms to consider since they play a vital role in supporting ecosystems. The intimate relationships between ground and surface water imply that these resources must be treated as an integrated resource rather than as separate ones.
Interactions between surface and ground water include, but are not limited to:
- wetlands, which are supported and interact strongly with groundwater in some areas
- streamflow, which is sustained by groundwater when contributions from direct precipitation are lacking (baseflow) (Arnell, 1996)
- influent rivers, which contribute recharge to aquifers
- springs, which are groundwater discharge features, and
- coastal waters, which receive discharging fresh groundwater to support delicate ecosystems.
Therefore, climate variability as it affects any one of these environments will not only impact groundwater resources, but impacts to aquifers will affect each of these as well. For example, shifts in the nature of the stream discharge curves have the potential to influence significantly water levels in aquifers. Under various climate change scenarios for British Columbia, higher peak discharge and an earlier onset and more prolonged baseflow period are predicted for many rivers (Leith and Whitfield, 1998). For those aquifers that are in good hydraulic connection to rivers, rising water tables might accompany spring flood events and longer periods of declining water tables will occur through the late summer and early fall. Reductions to glacier runoff over the next several decades will also see a major impact on many river and aquifer systems as these rely on glacier melt during the late summer months to sustain baseflow and water levels in aquifers (Brugman et al., 1997).
Climate variability and change may be important considerations for overall changes to the flow regime. Coastal aquifers are used here as an example, but other complex aquifer systems (that might have fluids of different densities or levels of contamination, or natural quality variations) may be similarly affected. Coastal aquifers are sensitive to changes in water budget due to the interaction between fresh and salt water in the subsurface along the coast. When recharge is lowered, the position of the freshwater-saltwater interface will move inland at a rate that is proportional to the reduction in recharge, and water quality can be compromised to the extent that freshwater availability is limited. Similarly, changes in sea level that might accompany climate change affect the position of this interface. A complicating factor is land-use development, which has increased in most coastal regions of Canada (e.g., Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, lower mainland of British Columbia). Upconing or encroachment of the freshwater-saltwater interface due to increased pumping of groundwater is a potential threat.
As the various inputs to (recharge) and outputs from (discharge) aquifers are affected, so too will be the overall storage of groundwater in an aquifer. Over the long term, and in the absence of any major changes to annual budgets that might, for example, be caused by groundwater pumping, the water budget for an aquifer is generally in dynamic equilibrium. This means that cyclic climate variability does occur and does impact water levels, but over the long term, the system is in dynamic equilibrium. Short-term (or moderate-term) variability is reflected in the hydrographs as cyclic variation. Long-period trends in hydrographs that are superimposed over the high-frequency variations reflect changes in groundwater storage that might be the result of groundwater overexploitation (excessive pumping) or climate change. When groundwater is removed from storage, water levels in the aquifer drop, and when water is added to storage, the water levels rise. In aquifers that contain layers or lenses of geologic materials that are easily compacted (e.g., clay), reductions in storage may potentially increase the effective stress on geologic units leading to compaction and land subsidence.
Increased irrigation is perhaps the most obvious reason why there may be an increased demand for groundwater as an alternative or supplemental supply of water. From a global perspective, climate change impacts to other nations may limit their ability to grow food. An increase in Canadian food export will result in greater consumption of freshwater in Canada, some of which will most certainly be groundwater.
Changes in the demand for groundwater are also likely to occur as development increases and as land use changes or intensifies. While these effects will largely be driven by population increase, climate variability and change may play some role. For example, if shallow aquifers experience significant impacts, it may be necessary for some regions to seek additional groundwater resources from deeper aquifers. Therefore, while the overall demand may be lowered for some aquifers, it may increase for others.
Potential lower recharge to aquifers may prove to be limiting factors to water availability in many regions. This may occur particularly when evapotranspiration losses might be greater under climate change conditions, and when water use might rise to accommodate growing populations, increased use for agriculture and irrigation, etc.
In Canada, most research on the potential impacts of climate change to the hydrologic cycle has been directed at forecasting the potential impacts to surface water, specifically the links between glacier runoff and river discharge (e.g., Whitfield and Taylor, 1998; Leith and Whitfield, 1998). Relatively little research has been undertaken to determine the sensitivity of aquifers to changes in the key climate change variables, precipitation and temperature. Internationally, only a few studies have been reported in the literature on the impacts of climate change (based on predictive scenarios) to groundwater resources (e.g., Vaccaro 1992; Rosenberg et al., 1999; McLaren and Sudicky, 1993). Aquifer recharge and groundwater levels interact and depend on climate and groundwater use; each aquifer has different properties and requires detailed characterization and eventually quantification (e.g., numerical modelling) of these processes and linking the recharge model to climate model predictions (York et al., 2002).
With the purpose of increasing our knowledge on groundwater availability as a first step to assessing impacts from climate changes, several key areas require additional understanding and study in Canada.
Even without climate change, increased demand for water can be expected because of population growth, ongoing industrialization and agricultural demands. In addition, there is an increased need for protection of both surface and ground water resources by means of establishing land-use guidelines. Consequently, there will be an increasing need for aquifer resource inventories and aquifer characterizations, particularly in populated areas.
- The impacts of climate variability and change will vary across Canada, not only due to differences in climate from region to region, but also due to the nature of the groundwater system being affected. Regional case studies involving detailed characterization of aquifers are required to gain a better understanding of the potential impacts on groundwater resources.
- The impacts of climate variability and change on groundwater recharge are not well understood and are a major deficiency in current groundwater models.
- The dynamics of the interaction between shallow aquifers and surface water are poorly understood and not well studied in Canada.
To address these knowledge gaps, historic and future climatic and hydrologic data will be of critical importance for describing changes to the overall water balance and flow regime within an aquifer system, and managing the resource into the future.
Groundwater level measurements from observation wells are the principal source of information on the effects of hydrologic stresses on groundwater systems. These data in combination with precipitation records, streamflow and withdrawal data are essential for monitoring the effectiveness of groundwater management and protection schemes. Similar to streamflow and climatic data, groundwater level data become progressively more valuable with increased record length and continuity. Groundwater level data from observation well networks are available for all provinces (Maathuis, In progress). However, in contrast to streamflow and climatic data, which may have records up to 100 years in length, groundwater level records are typically less than 25 years in length and seldom longer than 40 years. Furthermore, relatively few wells are strategically situated near climate and/or streamflow stations making analysis and comparison difficult. Also, in the past decade networks have suffered from budget cuts, resulting in a reduction in the number of groundwater level observation wells and interruption in the continuity of records.
Data on groundwater withdrawal are similarly critical in assessments of the behaviour of water levels in aquifers. Without withdrawal data, it is impossible to separate the impact of pumping from that caused by climatic variability and change. While in many parts of Canada groundwater withdrawal licences are required for non-domestic groundwater use, reliable withdrawal data are often absent.
The available data that could be used to support any evidence of impacts of climate variability and change on groundwater resources are insufficient and of very short duration. Therefore, the collection of the following long-term data is critical.
Water level data: A Canada-wide network of observation wells for long-term groundwater level monitoring should be established. The network should include wells completed in both stressed and natural environments. It also should be tied into the climate and streamflow networks.
Groundwater withdrawal data: Information about groundwater withdrawals (pumping) is critical to the proper interpretation of water-level data and a basic input parameter into groundwater models.
Well-calibrated groundwater models could be used to simulate and anticipate the possible impacts of climate change on the sustainability of groundwater resources. Models should be built to simulate and predict:
- groundwater changes due to human actions (pumping),
- interactions with surface water bodies (rivers, streams, lakes and wetlands),
- climate variability (hydrological cycle scale), and
- climate change (long-term scale).
In addition to the above, models could be excellent tools for water management, when used for assessing the natural sustainable yield of aquifers and their vulnerability to contamination.
The following institutional considerations are also recommended:
- encouraging watershed approaches to water management and protection
- increasing cooperation between federal and provincial agencies regarding implementation and operation of monitoring networks
- fostering linkages between water scientists and water managers
- promoting integrated water resource management
- promoting a network of compatible (i.e., standardized) groundwater databases, and
- promoting a groundwater resources inventory.
Allen, D.M., D.C. Mackie and M. Wei. Groundwater and climate change: a sensitivity analysis for the Grand Forks aquifer, southern British Columbia, Canada. Hydrogeology Journal, In press.
Arnell, N. 1996. Global warming, river flows and water resources. John Wiley and Sons. Chichester, England.
Betcher, R.N. Personal communication.
Brugman, M.M., P.A. Raistrick and A. Pietroniro. 1997. Glacier related impacts of doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations on British Columbia and Yukon. In Taylor, E. and B. Taylor (ed.), Responding to global climate change in British Columbia and Yukon. Volume I of the Canada country study: climate impacts and adaptation. Environment Canada and B.C. Ministry of Environment, Lands and Parks.
Changnon, S.A., F.A. Huff and C.-F. Hsu. 1988. Relations between precipitation and shallow groundwater in Illinois. J. Climate 1: 1239-1250.
Charron, J.E. 1965. Groundwater resources of Winnipeg area, Manitoba. Geological Survey of Canada, Paper 64-23.
Chen, Z. and S. Grasby. 2001. Predicting variations in groundwater levels in response to climate change, upper carbonate rock aquifer, southern Manitoba. Natural Resources Canada, Geological Survey of Canada, Calgary.
Chen, Z., S.E. Grasby and K.G. Osadetz. 2002. Predicting average annual groundwater levels from climatic variables: an empirical model. J. Hydrol. 260: 102-117.
Custodio, E. 1987. Seawater intrusion in the Llobregat Delta, near Barcelona (Catalonia, Spain), p. 436-463. In Groundwater problems in coastal areas. Studies and reports in hydrogeology, no. 45. UNESCO, Paris.
Gabert, G.M. 1986. Alberta groundwater observation-well network. Alberta Research Council, Terrain Sciences Department, Earth Sciences Report, 86-1. 40 p.
Gilliland, J.A. 1967. Observation-well program. Department of Energy, Mines and Resources, Inland Waters Branch. 30 p.
Gleick, P.H. 1986. Methods for evaluating the regional hydrologic impacts of global climatic changes. J. Hydrol. 88: 97-116.
Grasby, S.E. and R.N. Betcher. 2002. Regional hydrogeochemistry of the carbonate rock aquifer, southern Manitoba. Can. J. Earth Sci. 39: 1053-1063.
Lambrakis, N. 1997. The impact of urbanisation of Malia coastal area (Crete) on groundwater quality. Environ. Geol. 36: 87-92.
Leith, R.M.M. and P.H. Whitfield. 1998. Evidence of climate change effects on the hydrology of streams in south-central British Columbia. Can. Water Resour. J. 23(3): 219-230.
Maathuis, H. Groundwater level observation well networks in Canada. Saskatchewan Research Council, In progress.
Maathuis, H. and G. van der Kamp. 1986. Groundwater observation well network in Saskatchewan, Canada, p. 565-581. In Proceedings of Canadian Hydrology Symposium No. 16, National Research Council Canada, NRCC No. 25514.
McLaren, R.G. and E.A. Sudicky. 1993. The impact of climate change in groundwater. Impacts of climatic change on water in the Grand River basin Ontario. University of Waterloo, Department of Geography Publications series, vol. 40.
Nastev, M., A. Rivera, R. Lefebvre and M.M. Savard. 2002. Hydrogeology and numerical simulation of the regional groundwater flow of the St. Lawrence Lowlands of South-Western Quebec. Sumitted for publication.
Piggott, A., D. Brown, B. Mills and S. Moin. 2001. Exploring the dynamics of groundwater and climate interaction, p. 401-408. In Proceedings of the 54th Canadian Geotechnical and 2nd Joint IAH-CNC and CGS Groundwater Specialty Conference. Canadian Geotechnical Society and the Canadian National Chapter of the International Association of Hydrogeologists.
Render, F.W. 1970. Geohydrology of the Metropolitan Winnipeg area as related to groundwater supply and construction. Can. Geotech. J. 7: 243-274.
Rivard, C., J. Marion, Y. Michaud, S. Benhammane, A. Morin, R. Lefebvre and A. Rivera. 2003. Étude de l’impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur les ressources en eau souterraine dans l’Est du Canada, Commission géologique du Canada, dossier public 1577. 39 p. et annexes.
Rosenberg, N.J., D.J. Epstein, D. Wang, L. Vail, R. Srinivasan and J.G. Arnold. 1999. Possible impacts of global warming on the hydrology of the Ogallala aquifer region. Climatic Change 42: 677-692.
Rutulis, M. 1989. Groundwater draught sensitivity of Southern Manitoba. Can. Water Resour. J. 14(1): 18-55.
Taylor, C.J. and W.M. Alley. 2001. Ground-water-level monitoring and the importance of long-term water-level data. U.S. Geological Survey, Circular 1217. 68 p.
Vaccaro, J.J. 1992. Sensitivity of groundwater recharge estimates to climate variability and change, Columbia Plateau, Washington. In Lettenmaier, D.P. and D. Rind (ed.), Hydrological aspects of global climate change. J. Geophys. Res. D Atmospheres 97(3): 2821-2833.
van der Kamp, G. and H. Maathuis. 1991a. Annual fluctuations of groundwater levels as a result of loading by surface moisture. J. Hydrol. 127(1-4): 137-152.
van der Kamp, G. and H. Maathuis. 1991b. Groundwater levels and climate change, p. 143-147. In Proceedings of NHRI Symposium No. 8, Using hydrometric data to detect and monitor climatic change, April 1991.
van der Kamp, G. and R. Schmidt. 1997. Monitoring of total soil moisture on a scale of hectares using groundwater piezometers. Geophys. Res. Lett. 24(6): 719-722.
Vengosh, A. and E. Rosenthal. 1994. Saline groundwater in Israel: its bearing on the water crisis in the country. J. Hydrol. 156: 389-430.
Whitfield, P.H. and E. Taylor. 1998. Apparent recent changes in hydrology and climate of coastal British Columbia, p. 22-29. In Mountains to sea: human interaction with the hydrologic cycle, Proc. Canadian Water Resources Association 51st Annual Conference, Victoria, B.C.
York, J.P., M. Person, W.J. Gutowski and T.C. Winter. 2002. Putting aquifers into atmospheric simulation models: an example from the Mill Creek Watershed, north-eastern Kansas. Adv. Water Resour. 25: 221-238.
Zektser, I.S. and H.J. Loaiciga. 1993. Groundwater fluxes in the global hydrologic cycle: past, present, and future. J. Hydrol. 144: 405-442.
- Date modified: